The haves and have nots

Unfortunately because of job constraints I have not been able to update as often as I would like.  Let me review what has happened since the last posting on April 15th - and you can read that one here if you haven't already.

For months (actually since January 18) I had thrown out a date of  "April 20th give or take a day or two" as a potential big day across the high plains. That is a three month specific outlook!  I updated that on the 15th of April with a "between April 20-24".  Did anything happen?  You be the judge.

Severe weather reports on April 21

Severe weather reports on April 22 (day Sharron Springs got hit with a tornado)

In the previous posts I mentioned there a colder period the last days of April and into the first days of May with a possible frost or light freeze.  Here is a map of low temperatures across Kansas this morning the 3rd (and disregard the single digit for Spearville obviously).

Also in the previous posts I mentioned "slight bit of hope in May".  The past few systems have brought some good rains but for the "haves" and not for the "nots".   Such is systems in the spring.  At least now there is storms farther west.  Here is a look at the precipitation this past 14 days.

Obviously the hardest hit area by the drought has continued to miss a lot of the precipitation but yet some areas did get some good rain this past 2 weeks.   The good news is that, as been case all spring, the pattern remains active but now some gulf of Mexico moisture is returning.  Looking at the upper air image from this afternoon...

There is a pretty strong upper level system across the Great Basin.  Surface moisture was returning up through west Texas and should be enough to interact with this system to bring some good rain across a pretty good chunk of the high plains.   Unfortunately  much of west Texas may not benefit much.

There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance.