Friday, May 6, 2022

How disappointing! Mostly have nots!

 In the previous post I did on the third (please read it here), I ended with "There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance."

The system that was coming in with tons of moisture to work with had so much promise!  The forecast precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center was very optimistic and I was hopeful it would be close, yet I knew there would be some locations that got "ripped off".  However, I was not expecting so much of the area missing out.  The reason?  The atmosphere dumped copious amounts of rain across Oklahoma and into the eastern half of Kansas.  Look at the map of rainfall...depressing for sure if you live across the high plains...


Essentially the front ignited south of Kansas and that helped to reinforce the cold air across Kansas and disrupted the flow of moisture into the weather system aloft - which was actually in a perfect position to benefit the high plains.  Yes, there was a relatively narrow band of good rainfall across parts of eastern Colorado and NW KS, but for the most of the area of high plains it was nothing more than heavy drizzle for a couple of days.

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....



We are still in a very active pattern.  Now the problem, and I was NOT seeing this happen, the pattern has shifted a little north.  The result?  HOT and windy conditions will be developing.  I blew that one!  Will there be thunderstorms with the heat?  I would think there will be a possibility but I'm afraid only on a scattered basis (again next week the 9-13th) and there may be too much of a CAP (warm air aloft).  I can't imagine though with the active pattern that at least of a portion of the high plains will benefit (maybe towards the weekend).  

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center...



I'll try to update again later in the week.


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