Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Halloween Strom - updated 10/29/15

In the previous post I did on Tuesday (click here), I discussed a an upper pattern suggesting a cold shot into the plains.  This morning, low temperatures bottomed out quickly across much of northern Kansas and Nebraska.  Some of the coldest readings across southern Kansas were only at those levels for an hour or less, right around sunrise.  Here is a map of this mornings lows (10/29) provided by the Kansas Mesonet (Kansas State University operated)...click for a larger map

The Halloween storm that I have referred to during the past 2 or 3 posts has been developing and was headed towards the southern and central plains.  On the afternoon satellite image, you can see it denoted by the X over Arizona.


This system will be strong enough to bring widespread rainfall to much of the central and southern plains and eventually to the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast U.S.. (some of this precipitation will fall later next week, so it's not ALL from this Halloween storm).

Once this Halloween system slides by, there should be rapid clearing (much of the plains by Saturday afternoon).  But there is no additional cold air associated with it. So, even though temperatures will be quite chilly during the rain and Saturday night in it's wake under clearing skies, daytime temperatures will actually start to warm up Sunday and into next week.  The reason?  Look at the following map...


The jet stream (strong winds aloft) will carve out what we call a trough during the week.  The air aloft across the plains will allow mild air to develop.  There is also the likelihood that a few rounds of thunderstorms could occur sometime next week.  Details are uncertain this far out, but I have a hunch it could get pretty wet again and with the possibility of some severe weather.  More details sometime next week...


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