Update - 11/4/15

In the post I did on the 29th (read it here), much of the discussion was about the "Halloween" storm that had been discussed about in previous posts.  In that last entry, I showed a map of expected precipitation.  Here is that map..

and here is a map showing the precipitation that ended yesterday...(click for a larger version).

That was a pretty good forecast from WPC!

I also posted a map of the expected jet stream position for today (the 4th) and highlighted the unseasonably mild conditions with a chance for thunderstorms and where snow might fall this week.

Here is that forecast map from last week...

Here is the latest satellite image from this afternoon....

 

 

So far that forecast from last week is panning out perfectly!  There is currently heavy snow in the Rockies and the afternoon's temperatures are certainly mild for early November.

With the recent precipitation and with these mild temperatures it sure appears as if the Winter Wheat is making rapid Fall growth!  I'm only guessing, but is there now going to be a problem with green bugs?  A widespread hard freeze is still a ways off (although a freeze is likely soon - see below).

Looking back at the satellite image above, the upper system near Las Vegas will be progressing east and north during the next 24-48 hours.  Thunderstorms are going to be possible as this system moves out into the plains.  But the timing will prevent anything widespread until the system gets farther east.  The main risk of severe weather will be across the eastern half of Oklahoma and Texas.  

Here is the expected precipitation for the remainder of the week and into the first of next week....

Looking ahead...

The winds aloft are increasing with a lot of "energy" starting to build up across the Pacific.  As systems move off the Pacific into the U.S., there will be the opportunity for them to intensify into major storms during the next 1 to 3 weeks.  HOWEVER, not all signs are lining up, just yet.  One piece of this puzzle I look for is the blocking across the North Atlantic.  With blocking in this region, storms tend to slow up and amplify meridionally across the U.S.  One index I look at is the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO).  Currently it is positive (no blocking) and is expected to persist that way for a while with tends to allow storms to progress rapidly across the country.  But, it can change phases very quickly so close monitoring is essential.

 

Here is a plot of the phase of the NAO (historical and projection)...

 

 

Notice that by next week there is some suggestion that the index will go negative.  I'll be watching that closely as some of the aforementioned systems coming off the Pacific could amplify much more strongly than what is currently expected.

As far as a widespread freeze....

Once this current system moves out into the plains, there should be a "cool" shot of air behind it.  This time of year there does not have to be a really cold airmass to allow for freezing temperatures.  I suspect that temperatures will get to freezing Friday through Sunday, at least as far south as the Oklahoma/Kansas border.  Just how much below freezing will depend on sky conditions and surface winds.  For many areas of the plains, the first "vegetative killing freeze" has not occurred yet, but it is several weeks later than the climatalogical average. 

Again, any system that exists later next week will have to be watched for amplification.