As far back as records go, the severe storms with numerous tornadoes was a historic event, especially for the area west of about 98 degrees west longitude. Not all tornado tracks have been calculated yet, nor the number, but so far it looks like at least 3 dozen occurred! Unreal for this late in the fall!
But, let me just put this out there. The tornado events were NOT the result of El Nino! If you go back a few posts, you will understand why. First, El Nino is not a "thing" or object that causes storms on a very small scale (such as tornadoes). Second, the atmospheric flow aloft (jet stream) has NOT responded yet to the warm event in the Pacific (El Nino).
The more important features could be the relatively warm waters of the North Pacific interacting with the MJO (have discussed this already), and the rapid cooling of the northern latitudes at the surface. The result caused the vigorous upper storm to dig into the southern Rockies (that is not a rare occurrence). There was a leading "weak" upper system that came out of the southern branch of the westerlies that helped to draw moisture northward out of the Gulf but at the same time was weak enough that there was not a cold front behind it as it departed. Then this vigorous upper system produced a tremendous jet stream that moved out across the plains (again, not a rare event). Everything came together just right to produce the supercell thunderstorms and resulting tornadoes. These specific type of setups have occurred before (not many), but this time all the necessary ingredients combined to produce the severe weather including the tornadoes.
The following are maps showing the tracks of most of the tornadoes that occurred...(click for a larger image)
I've been a professional Meteorologist for 32+ years and this is the first time in my career that I have been concerned for myself and my families safety once the tornadic supercell developed near Liberal, KS. I was not at work but was able to interrogate the storm using radar software from home. I knew the tornado that developed with that storm was large and potentially violent, especially considering it intensified after sunset (one reason is the nocturnal jet that forms after dark). The track was consistent and it became increasingly apparent that Dodge City was in the potential path. What made it worse, for me personally, is that the track was consistently right at my house! Plus, the storm was showing absolutely NO change in intensity which was very concerning. I got extremely nervous and actually a little sick to my stomach because I knew if the trend continued there would be tremendous destruction and a high potential for loss of life. Visions were running through my mind of my personal belongings being scattered to other parts of Kansas. I didn't feel a threat for my families safety though as I'm fortunate to have adequate shelter from these types of events. Wow, my cell phone about burnt up from the constant calls and text messages. It was intense!
Here is a map showing the potential track (red line).
BTW, this would have also been right across the Boothill Casino and the Dodge City High School.
Fortunately for Dodge City, the storm finally cycled and the original tornado weakened and turned north before dissipating, but not before travelling an astonishing 51 miles! I might add that at it's largest size, the tornado was 1.1 miles wide with winds varying from 100 to 155 MPH! Over a mile wide...think about that!
A second smaller and weaker tornado developed as the first was dissipating and fortunately (again for Dodge City) it turned immediately north.
In addition, look at how fortunate Kismet and Plains were! The two towns were blessed in a way. The original track would have taken the tornado right over both communities!
One final bit of information on these tornadoes. The track and size of the tornadoes from Liberal were almost identical to what happened May 26 of this year! The only difference was as the storm approached Dodge City in that event, the tornadoes turned to the right instead of the left and spared the city!
So, after the severe weather outbreak, the following day was greeted with a major snow storm! The heaviest snow fell in a band from northwest Kansas into southeast Colorado. The largest amount I saw was near Colby where around 20 inches fell! This morning (Saturday the 21st), the band of snow still on the ground was very evident.
The storm that produced the severe thunderstorms and snow, also brought quite a bit of precipitation. Here is a map showing the estimated amounts for the past seven days.
Doing the damage assessment survey of the tornadoes, I saw a fair amount of milo that had not been harvested yet. Unfortunately, most of it was sitting in standing water and likely will not be cut until the ground freezes later this winter. I discussed this possibility in the previous post.
The earthquake on the third day? I'm a Meteorologist, not a Geologist LOL. It was the first time that I have been aware as it happened. I was awoken by items rattling on the walls.
In that post I did a week ago I mentioned the potential storm for Thanksgiving week. Wouldn't you know, the potential is growing! I won't go into too many details just yet (and I will do my best to update this Monday or Tuesday).
The latest satellite image from this morning...
This is a busy and very complicated satellite image showing numerous contributors for this weeks weather.
First, the "L" off the west coast. It is moving south and will eventually weaken and move across the central U.S. sometime Tuesday. It may be just strong enough to bring some showers, but more importantly it will help to bring Gulf moisture back north.
Second, look at the bottom right. That is Tropical Storm Rick. It, if it gets picked up by the jet stream, could potentially bring excessive rains to parts of Texas or lower Mississippi Valley.
The most important feature is the X labeled with the 1 (Thanksgiving system). It is really just a minor disturbance at this point but is expected to amplify and intensify into the first of the week. The second X (labeled with 2) will also impact the pattern but at this point I'm not confident on it's interaction. There are numerous possibilities at this point. Once the X (#1) begins the amplification process I should have a better idea of all the developments.
At this point, the most likely solution, would be a major snow storm for the northern and central Rockies and out into the adjacent plains and perhaps as far as northwest Kansas. Rain and thunderstorms will become increasing likely elsewhere. All this would occur, most likely, up to Thanksgiving day. The end of the week and into the weekend would be followed by MUCH colder temperatures with areas of the northern plains down into Nebraska potentially staying in the single digits for highs. Details are highly uncertain so check back Monday or Tuesday. Stay up-to-date by checking weather.gov.
A first guess at the amount of precipitation that "may" fall through the end of the week...
Again, details are highly uncertain so check back Monday or Tuesday.
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