Update 11/14/15 - MAJOR storm

In the post I did on the 11th (click here) I discussed the vigorous storm lifting out of Kansas (which brought a "mini" blizzard and eventually severe weather including tornadoes to the midwest).  This system was the first intense development of the fall season.  Also in the post I talked about the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the impacts it was going to have and was having on the jetstream and a possible storm for the first of the week.

Updating that situation...indeed it looks as amplification is taking place in the winds aloft.  Looking at the satellite image from this Saturday afternoon....

The extended jetstream from the MJO is pointing towards southern California in the image.  Upstream, nearer the MJO, the Rosby wavetrain energy propagation was forcing strong riding of the flow across the Pacific basin.  This in turn is causing the significant deepening of the storm (#2 on the image) that will impact the plains this week.  Before I discuss that storm further, look at the "little" system (#1) on the image south of the Four Corners region.

This little storm, number 1, was helping to increase flow across Texas bringing increasing clouds and humidity.  Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing across Oklahoma and Texas, especially Sunday and some of this will move into Kansas (especially south central and eastern Kansas).

Back to the more important feature, #2.  There is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty of the magnitude and placement of this system as it drops into the Rockies and movement into the plains.  The possibilities are numerous.  There is no sense in getting specific at this point.  But, what is certain is that this storm will be intense with the likelihood of  severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, lots of wind and most likely heavy snow.  The "where" is just plain impossible to nail down, at this point in time.  But here are some educated "guesses"..

Severe weather early (Monday)...from the Storm Prediction Center

The severe risk for Tuesday will shift south and east.

As far as precipitation from this storm for Tuesday and Wednesday, here is an educated guess from my office...NWS Dodge City

Regardless of where everything sets up, I think there is a very high probability of precipitation that WILL impact harvesting of any residual crops across the plains. I hope those that need to get corn and milo out of the field are doing so this weekend.

I'll try and update this Monday to get more specific, hopefully.

Beyond this system, it looks like a much colder pattern is setting up towards next weekend and into Thanksgiving week.