Heavy rain and no freeze, yet...Updated 10/22/15

In the previous post I did on the 19th (click here for that  discussion), I eluded to the deep tropical flow that was headed towards the plains.  If you look at the forecast map of possible precipitation that was in that post and as discussed, I was expecting that excessive rainfall could fall early in the period.  Looking at the rainfall map of the past few days, I think you would agree that excessive rainfall did indeed fall. (click for a larger map)

Any color in the blue is at least an inch of rain and this has to be beneficial for wheat that had emerged.  In the Texas Panhandle there had been several flood and flash flood warnings, especially where the 6 to 8 inches of rain fell.

The upper low responsible for the storm had moved into northern New Mexico.  But a strong "chunk" of energy had already ejected to the north, taking the majority of the rainfall with it.  Heavy rains are still expected across parts of Oklahoma and especially Texas on the trailing end where additional development will take place.

Here is the satellite image...

 
As eluded to in the previous posts, there could still be an influence from possible tropical activity.  A hurricane had formed (Patricia) and it is expected to turn north into Mexico.  There is also another disturbance off the southern Texas coast.   The combination of this disturbance and remnants of Patricia (if that hurricane does turn north) will enhance the rainfall potential across Texas (except the west and panhandle).  Excessive and flooding rains will be highly likely.

Much of the rain you see across the plains in the map above had already fallen, so emphasis is the expected rain across Texas.

Looking ahead a bit, there is still some question about a possible system around Halloween.  Unfortunately this is the time of year when patterns are changing rapidly and have not been established which makes it very difficult to forecast.  I will just say that there is a small possibility at this time.  Also, any widespread freeze is not showing up, except for the upper midwest where there has already been a freeze.  For much of the high plains, a widespread killing freeze is still at least 7 to 10 days out which would be a little unusual.  I was looking for snow cover up north where some of our cold air masses form and so far there isn't much to speak of.