A rant and a forecast - Updated 10/5/15

Nothing irritates me more and makes my blood boil than an inaccurate assessment of the atmosphere by the media and others.  I'm sure many of you have heard of the deadly and tragic flooding that occurred (and still ongoing) across the Carolinas.  Many outlets have said that the torrential rainfall and subsequent flooding was the result of Hurricane Joaquin coming ashore over the weekend.

NO!

The Hurricane NEVER came close to the mainland!  In addition, the Hurricane was NOT the result of global warming!  Dang my veins are popping right now.  BTW, the U.S. mainland has not had a major hurricane in 10 years now.

Go back to the last post I did (click here).  Did you remember the forecast track of Joaquin?   Computer models (and humans that fall into the category of forecasting what the models say) were woefully wrong!  It was an extremely tough forecast.  But at the same time I had pointed out that an upper system was going to amplify and intensify into a strong upper storm.  It was this upper storm that combined with just the right set up to produce the copious rainfall.  The presence of Joaquin near the Bahamas may have added a bit of moisture from the very warm ocean waters.  But everything else was in place to provide an environment to generate the exceptional amount of rain.

First, here is that one forecast with various model output tracks with the eventual track on Joaquin on top (the green trace).  (click for a larger version).

 and the track without the forecast junk....

 A satellite loop shows the progression of the Hurricane and the developing upper storm.

 

Rainfall was copious where the thunderstorms "trained" across the same area.  Look at South Carolina....while some areas in the state had 2 feet plus, other areas didn't even have a half of an inch of rain!

 

 And the bigger picture including much of the Atlantic Seaboard....

Back in Kansas and the plains...the beneficiaries from the blocking pattern were mainly the southern high plains, although there were certainly some good rains in Kansas, just isolated to widely scattered.  Here is a map of the rainfall the past 4 days...

The rains in this area are not over!  There is an upper low over southern California that will move east to near New Mexico before it gets "cut off" and then drifts south and wanders around.  The result will be much more rain across Arizona, New Mexico and the western half of Texas.  Parts of Kansas and eastern Colorado may also see a bit of rain, but it will likely be limited in areal coverage and amounts.

The Weather Prediction Center offers the following forecast through Sunday....

The National Weather Service office in Dodge City will be at the 3i show later this week in Dodge.  If you're there, stop at our booth (inside - 298) and say "howdy".