Interesting weather is not too far away! Updated 10/16/15

First I wanted to show the morning low temperature map.  In earlier posts I had eluded to the possibility of some freezing temperatures that were expected for today and tomorrow.  (click for a larger version)

Here is a map showing where a "killing" freeze has occurred (temperatures at 28 or colder) this fall...

In the post I did on the 5th and again on the 13th, I discussed an upper system that moved into Arizona and New Mexico and then headed south and west.  During the past few days it has helped to bring heavy rains and severe weather to California.  Here is a crazy loop of this system (animated gif)...

This track of the upper system has been amazing and considering that it intensified over the warm waters off of Baja California, it is pretty rare.  Those heavy rains across California are NOT an El Nino response!  I can't stress that enough.  A "typical" El Nino response is for an extended west to east jet stream across the Pacific that moves systems in from near Hawaii, not for closed lows to wonder around as this one has done.  Regardless, at least some rain fell out west which is great news!  Too bad for the mud slides though.

The satellite image from this morning shows this system.  Also note the red X way south - I'll discuss that at the bottom...

In the previous post I mentioned that this system that is now over California would likely go through a decaying process as it moved into the plains.  Indeed it appears that will happen but the flow aloft may bring addition disturbances late next Monday through Wednesday.  So, there should still be showers and even thunderstorms during that period, at least scattered.  Starting tomorrow (17th) and continuing into mid-week it also appears that the wind will be picking up and will become pretty strong during the afternoon hours, just about anywhere across the plains (central and east).

I've mentioned numerous times that a new weather pattern gets established during the fall.  In the previous post on the 13th I was not seeing much evidence of major changes.  WOW, have things changed!  First there is strong tropical activity that has developed across the western Pacific (normally leads to changes across the U.S. a week to 10 days later).  Second, the jet stream is increasing in velocity across the Pacific and is beginning to buckle.  It now appears (at least there is strong evidence) that the flow aloft will buckle substantially enough that the flow will become southwesterly across the plains next week and into the following week.  If computer guidance is even close to being correct, there should be many ingredients coming together to produce an active wet and strormy period, especially in the 7 to 14 day period.  I would not be surprised to see several episodes of severe weather across the plains.  In addition, excessive rainfall may actually be a threat.  Here is the latest precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (7 days through next Friday morning)...

Beyond next Friday morning more rain could fall into the following week, so some locations from New Mexico, west Texas and into Kansas could see double this amount!  I hope by that period most of the winter wheat has emerged or replanting will be in someone's future.  At the same time, unharvested cotton, sorghum and corn may be sitting is some pretty muddy fields.  Confidence is growing for this scenario but of course this is still early in thinking, i.e. not set in stone.

Finally, about that "X" that is way down south.  With some of the western tropical activity (primarily the presence of a Madden Julian Oscillation) favoring development in this area, I would have a concern a tropical storm or even a hurricane could impact the Gulf states.  Even if a TC or hurricane fails to develop, it appears  much of the western Gulf coast will get excessively wet later next week as this "X" moves north.