Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Update 10/27/15

In the previous post (click here), the rain event that impacted much of the high plains was shifting south and Hurricane Patricia was moving into Mexico.  As the remnants of the hurricane moved into south Texas, additional very heavy rains fell across the Lone Star State and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.  Here is the 7 day precipitation map...


It's unfortunate that much of eastern Kansas and northern Okaloma missed out.  Even a small area in central Texas missed out too!  The area northeast of Waco or southeast of Dallas received over 25 inches of rain!

Currently the central plains is experiencing several minor systems.  The first brought scattered rains to Kansas and Nebraska (I saw a 1 inch amount in Norton County Kansas) overnight and into Tuesday morning.  On the satellite image that follows, that system in question is the #1 X.  It also was bringing a little precipitation to the Kansas City area which may impact the Royals/Mets game for game one of the World Series.  BTW, if you're wondering, the green line with arrows represents the wind flow at about 30,000 feet.



The #2 X on the image above, was moving out of Wyoming towards Kansas this Tuesday afternoon.  It will bring more showers tonight and into Wednesday.  The #3 X  was the strongest system and it will carve out an upper low into the midwest.  It will bring a shot of colder air into the plains late Wednesday and Thursday.  There will likely be some freezing temperatures, but still no widespread season ending freeze.

Looking ahead...

In the satellite image above, you might have noticed the whiteness on the left hand side which corresponded to pacific moisture and clouds across the western U.S..  This is in advance of another developing storm that will drop into the southwest U.S. by Thursday.  This system is poised to bring another round of heavy rain to Texas but also addition rains into Kansas and Oklahoma.  This is the Halloween storm I've discussed over the past few posts!  It still could be too far south to impact much of Kansas but it looks like a slam dunk for Texas.  Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center (rainfall through next Tuesday).

Beyond this Halloween system, there are signals for yet another storm by the following weekend! But confidence in that system is low.    I also might add, the signals for a widespread freeze deep into Kansas and Oklahoma are STILL not showing up!  I would bet though we'll have one between the 7th and 14th of November.   This time of year it can happen and develop quickly!


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