There was a vigorous upper level low moving out of southeast Wyoming which will bring blizzard conditions to the northern plains as it lifts out towards that region. The associated surface features will bring severe weather to the far eastern plains and into the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Unfortunately for the high plains the system will bring high wind (and perhaps damaging gusts this Monday afternoon), very low humidity and mild/warm daytime temperatures. This will do nothing but accentuate the fire potential and continue to dry out the top several inches of the soil. With the tremendous amount of "fuel" (grasses), the potential for massive and out-of-control fires is extremely high!
The good news is that moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico remains readily available and will continue that trend into the growing season. The bad news is that it is not making it back far enough west to benefit the high plains as they weather systems move out of the Rockies. Also, the bad news is that this readily available GOM moisture has added to the severe weather threats farther east with yet another outbreak expected today and Tuesday!
Back on January 25th in the post I did (you can read it by clicking here), I mentioned that the warmer than normal GOM waters would impact the weather from the fall into the spring. As of early March, nothing will change in that thought as the season progresses.
Also in that January 25th post I reiterated what I had thought since fall. That is, that I had a pretty good feeling that going into the growing season and continuing into the summer that warm periods would be longer and more intense than they were in 2016. I also was leaning towards a drier than normal period. But, I also had a brief stretch of time where I was finding just a glimmer of hope! Well, that glimmer didn't last long.
In that January 25th post, I was anticipating a mid-March storm based on the cycling nature of the pattern. Lately on some of the long range computer model forecasts there has been a "hint" of a storm somewhere between the 11th and 16th across the central plains. I have ZERO confidence in any of those solutions. But, let's see what transpires during the next week. If there is indeed a system and it goes across Nebraska or impacts the eastern plains and leaves the high plains high-and-dry, then it might very well get grim for the remainder of the early spring.
For now, I really think that March will end up well below normal on precipitation and above normal on temperatures. Based on the cycling nature of the pattern, mid-April into much of May could have closer to normal precipitation and temperatures. We better hope so because as the season transitions into June/July I'm afraid the heat will really start to crank up.
I'll give it another couple of weeks before I try and get detailed on expected moisture and temperatures for the summer months, but early indications would suggest a diligent plan on water use will be critical for this growing season.
No comments:
Post a Comment