Update - 03/17/17

In the post I did on the 12th (read it by clicking here), I discussed the weather systems lately that were moving too far north and east to benefit the high plains.  The trend has continued this week. I did see a few opportunities by the end of this weekend or first of the week (not going to happen as it is going to be WAY north) and also again by the end of the month.  There now appears to be another system that will move through late next week (23-24).  It looks like it will be very energetic!  But, it also looks like it will be too far north.  There had been some pretty optimistic posts by the National Weather Service this week about a pattern change for next week. At this point the storm looks to be very similar to what occurred on the 6th.  That being said, I'm concerned about the fire risk again.  I'll try and post again early next week to update on that prospect.

Beyond the late week system, there continues to be hints of at least several opportunities towards the end of the month and into early April.  But at this point, if these "opportunities" don't pan out, the concern will increase for an intensification of the dry weather.  Speaking of which...

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor came out this past week and as you would probably expected, drought conditions have gotten worse across the central U.S.

Also this past week, the drought outlook was released from NOAA/NCEP/NWS/Climate Prediction Center.  Interesting.  Look at the map of improvement of the drought across parts of high plains of Kansas, the Missouri and Mississippi Valley and the lack of development across the Corn Belt.

While I'm not calling this wrong, I have to wonder how they came up with this.  Because the official outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for equal chances of below, normal and above.  In other words, in their outlook they say there is not enough evidence to go either way yet they say the drought will improve.  Hmmmm.

I'm not ready to say either way.  I just feel pretty strongly that dry periods this growing season will last longer in between opportunities for rain.  Precipitation could still be timely, even though amounts may end up below normal.  Again, I'm not sold on below, normal or above, at least not just yet.  "Heat waves" will be more intense and last longer, but will also be tempered occasionally by a few cool downs.  I'm feeling pretty confident about that.  But more later on temperatures.

As I've said in a few of the posts this past couple of months, diligent use of water may be critical this growing season (more so than normal).  Remember last year, it was very dry through April and then the water spigot got turned on and lasted into August.  It would be highly unlikely that would repeat this growing season. 

I'll try and post again early next week.