Monday, February 1, 2016

Update - February 1, 2016

In the blog I did on the 28th (read it here), I discussed the potential storm for early this week.  In fact, I had discussed the possibility for several weeks.  In the blog I said I would not be surprised at any track the storm would take because, as of last week, the storm wasn't even a storm yet.  Many posts had already been made by many individuals showing a lot of computer guidance of specific numbers (as far as snowfall).  This storm is going to end up farther north than the had been posted.

The storm is indeed a storm now, and the eventual track looks fairly certain at this time.  It is strong enough that not only will there be a major blizzard (centered on Nebraska), there will also be showers and even lightning and thunder in the "warm" sector!  As of Monday afternoon, it appears that the surface part of the storm will track from near Elkhart to near Kansas City starting tonight and continuing tomorrow (Tuesday).  The heaviest snow will fall north of the track putting areas like Goodland, Lincoln and near Omaha in the heavier snowfall with the maximum in central Nebraska to northwest Iowa.  Here is a map of potential snowfall (NOTE: not everyone in the shaded areas will get that much...but it is a potential):

 

In the "warm" sector along and south of the track, there will be showers and even thunderstorms.  Rainfall will generally be a quarter of an inch or less at most locations.  However, there will be a few spots that get an inch of rain, especially across eastern Kansas.

Looking at the afternoon satellite image, you can see where the upper part of the storm was located (near the Four Corners)...

 

One reason I had been expecting this storm was the cycling nature of the weather pattern and noticing where the forcing for these weather systems were located.  But, the big unknown (and with any storm) is just where they will track one the storm gets into the plains.  This time the track is too far north to bring snow to the panhandles and much of Kansas and Missouri.  One reason the track is farther north can be tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (can cause a blocking of the jet stream).
Compare the phase and strength for this current event and to the phase and strength from the earlier December (around the 12th) storm...

 

Beyond this current storm, the computer models had not  been picking up on any other systems for the rest of this week and into the weekend.  However, based on the jet stream configuration, I had been expecting at least a small system capable enough to bring a bit of moisture.  Now, computer forecast models do show at least something towards the end of the week.  I will look deeper into this possibility and post by mid-week.

As usual with any current storm, stay apprised of the event by checking frequently with the National Weather Serviceweather.gov

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