Is there a storm coming? Update 1/28/16

Unfortunately I've been really tied up lately and haven't had an opportunity to update this blog.

Have you heard?  There is a storm coming!  Or, is there?

Views and understanding about predictability of the atmosphere are inherently flawed.  Take for instance, the "storm" that might impact the high plains early next week that could bring significantly impacting weather conditions to the plains. Many folks believe that meteorologists and computer forecast models can pinpoint the location and amount of snow that will fall with a storm that hasn't even formed yet - 4 to 5 days prior to the event!  I've seen so many posts already on social media about details that CANNOT be forecast with any accuracy, even a day or two out.  Many of these posts are originating from non-weather people.  For me, this is extremely frustrating.  It is so frustrating, I think I'll just go out and play a round of winter golf.  :-)

So, is there going to be a storm?  Yes, it's VERY likely.  In fact, if you go back and read my blog posts I've been expecting that possibility for the first few days of February, following this big warm-up that has also been in the cards.

Looking at this mornings satellite image....

 
There was a disturbance aloft moving across the west coast that will help bring a shot of cold air into the plains later in the weekend.  No biggie.

The storm that isn't a storm yet, was located across the Pacific Ocean, denoted by the "O" on the map above.   It has a tremendous amount of growing to do before it becomes an impacting storm for the plains.  Computer models take this northeast and then east and finally southeast as it rounds the top of what is called the "upper level ridge".  This will happen based on the understanding of downstream energy propagation.  But the first problem...just where will the "O" start amplifying and dropping southeast?  Then, just how will the boundary layer of the atmosphere respond to this amplification and location of "O"?  Those are details that, at this point, are IMPOSSIBLE to predict with any accuracy!  Predicting snow amounts assuming a position of the "O" are frugal since there is absolutely no way to know what the temperature and moisture profile will be and no way to know what type of ice crystal formation will exist.  Thus, posting a map showing where snow will fall and how much (and even down to the nearest tenth of an inch) just adds a layer of anxiety.

So, my take...

First, there is a pretty good snowfield across Canada and the northern states....



Thus, any Arctic air or Canadian air won't be modified much as it moves south.  So, there should be a pretty good source of baroclinicity for any storm that forms.  Based on the atmosphere's areas of forcing and pattern cycle, I do feel confident that a pretty good storm will form.  But the main impacts could potentially be anywhere from Nebraska and Iowa or even as far south as northern Oklahoma and the Panhandles. If it pounds Goodland and NOT Dodge City, I won't be surprised.  If it hits Dodge City and not Goodland.  I won't be surprised.  There are just too many unknowns to pinpoint a location at this time.  As far as amounts...there is a huge range of possibilities from very little to over a foot with a lot of wind.  So, yes it could be a big storm.

It's winter.  Be prepared for winter conditions.  By Saturday, forecasters should have a pretty good idea so you can start making more detailed plans of possible impacts.  I won't be able to update this blog, so as usual stay on top of what is expected by monitoring National Weather Service products at:  weather.gov.