Is winter over? Update 02/09/16

First off, I need to jump on a soapbox.  Did you hear about the "Anthem of the Seas" cruise ship that got caught up in the big storm off the southeast U.S. coast?  Google it if you haven't heard.  The ship and passengers were needlessly battered and tossed around.  News reports say that this storm that the ship sailed into was not expected to be that strong.  &^#^%@!  This storm was well forecast and the National Weather Service and private weather companies did an outstanding job forecasting the intensity and was well advertised.  The Royal Caribbean Cruise company should be held accountable.  I'm so sick and tired of good forecasts getting tossed into the "it happened without warning" or "we weren't expecting it" that headlines often are plastered all over the place.  Rarely does a weather agency (government or private sector) get credited with live saving accurate forecasts and warnings.  Right or wrong, the weatherman frequently gets slammed.  Jumping off the box...

In the previous post I did on the 3rd (read it here) I discussed the pattern transition into a cold one for at least the eastern part of the country and as far west as far northeast Kansas.  So far there has been several surges of Arctic air, but it was no where as cold as I had anticipated.  It is really confusing for me as the pattern was and still is conducive for really cold air into the midwest (not the high plains), which is currently bottled up in Canada.  Here is the map of temperatures as of this Tuesday morning...



Yes, it got cold but the really cold air is still up north. Looking at the current Arctic Oscillation index chart...

 

...with the index significantly in the negative category, this usually translates into Arctic air dislodging and spreading well south into the states.  The pattern remains favorable so I still think some of this cold air will move into at least the Midwest and east.  For the plains, there may be a very brief surge around Saturday but it will be short lived.

Also in the previous post, I mentioned the potential for significant weather around the 16th give or take a couple of days.  Except for a few exceptions, computer forecast models do NOT have any hint of a storm.  There were a few model iterations that had a significant storm centered on Kansas. 

So, is there any chance?

Looking at the Tuesday morning satellite image....




The upper wind flow is complicated once again across the Pacific.  This could be the result of the on-going warm event (El Nino) and the residual warm waters across the north Pacific (discussed in previous posts).  There were several storms (fast moving denoted by the X's and a larger slower one denoted by the L).  The item of interest for me is the west to east jet stream (green arrow from the left center to the bright white northeast of Hawaii).  This represents an anomalously strong extension of the East Asian jet stream.  This is providing a lot of energy for one of these weather systems to intensify. 

At this point, my confidence in one of these systems intensifying as they move into the central part of the country is small.  But, the situation needs to be monitored.  The most likely time for significant development across the plains is still around the 16th-18th time frame.  I also think there might be a minor system around Valentines day but impacts should be rather small.  I'll try and update on Thursday.

Oh the headline?  Is winter over?  According to a lot of "experts", yes.  But, anyone that has lived in the plains long enough knows that winter type conditions usually lingers well into March and sometimes April.  This year we could be heading towards a pretty active March and with any cold air around, that would probably be manifested as a good ol' fashioned blizzard.  Oh joy.