The pattern had been set and an ocean/atmosphere forcing pattern was in place to produce an intense storm that was expected to occur between Christmas and the last few days of the month (I had discussed this several times during the past month). Computer models started to "hint" at this possibility as early as December 12. That really was no surprise. But thanks to the internet, one individual chose to post this one specific solution and it went viral (indicating Dodge City would get 25.7 inches of snow, for instance), and was forever etched in the human mind. Then for about a week the same computer model showed absolutely nothing, anywhere including West Texas. Again, not surprising as it (flip flopping) happens frequently.
As we got 3 days out, the computer models were showing that the storm would reach maximum intensity somewhere near El Paso and then move east and north from there. The forecasting problems were many - where would it track, where would the surface response occur, how much cold air would be in place, what would the temperature profile be above the surface, etc., etc.. This particular system had an insane amount of boundary layer moisture to work with. Low 70 dew points had moved into southeast Oklahoma. For late December, that is almost unheard of!
When I provided a forecast, I told people that the range of possibilities (for southwest Kansas) were huge, ranging from several feet of snow to virtually nothing! Why such a large range? Because for this storm, it would have everything needed to produce an epic amount of snow and wind and could very well track into Kansas. But at the same time, there was evidence that it would track too far south to produce much in western Kansas. Even as of the 26th, there was still concern that it would be close enough. In the post I did on the 26th (read it here), I showed two possible tracks (1 and 2). Obviously it took track #2. Nobody should have a problem by preparing for a very high impact winter storm, that could have rivaled the January 1886 or the March 1957 blizzard. The folks of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas probably have a different opinion compared to farther north.
I'm hearing reports that there are still stranded motorists on some roads of eastern New Mexico. Hopefully nobody died in the blizzard.
The following map shows how much precipitation has fallen the past few days. Epic!
That is 10 to 15 inches of rain across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri! That is extreme for any month, let alone December. There may actually be some concern for the reservoirs in these areas being capable of controlling the massive runoff.
As of this morning, here is the satellite image of the storm.
The red dashed line is the track the upper system took...or the southern track. Also, the storm ingested dry air from the north and made the impacts (as it moved out) a little smaller/tighter. In the previous posting I discussed the "kicker" and that has dropped into central California as of this writing.
The "kicker" system will move into the plains later Tuesday or early Wednesday. The system will be lacking moisture to work with but could still produce a small amount of precipitation (most likely snow) but it does not appear to be a big event at all.
Looking ahead into the first of the year, I've been expecting another storm not too far into the first of the year, but I'll have to analyze the situation once I get back to work. Stay tuned for that one. Overall it should be an active January - and likely colder as well.
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