The "storm" is definitely intensifying as expected, but the eventual track and strength is unknown since it STILL was not over the CONUS where weather balloons would be able to sample the atmosphere. What does this mean? It means that specific details on the sensible weather that will occur across the plains and adjacent areas is absolutely impossible to nail down with any confidence! For instance, if you are seeing specific amounts from different sources (the TV weather people are a prime example of this), then these specifics are nothing more than a wild guess. I know it's hard to prepare for something unknown. Maybe it's best just to plan for a worst-case-scenario.
Looking at the late afternoon satellite image (go back and compare to the satellite image from yesterday too)....there are several notable features.
X1 has undergone significant development since Wednesday (as was expected) and was becoming pretty intense. It is this system that will cause the issues. X2 has dropped south and has pumped up the ridge (blue line) that has contributed to the development of X1. Now there is an X3 that will become a player. Let me explain.
X1 will continue to undergo development and become an intense upper low. There remains a huge question mark about how far south it will go before turning east. If it turns east too far south, it will keep major winter precipitation out of eastern Colorado and western Kansas and limit the white chaos to areas of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. If it turns northeast, then much of the high plains will get clobbered and this could extend into other parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. X3 will be the mechanism that "could" force X1 to turn more northerly. Confused?
Bottom line...the most favored area for heavy snow (and likely blizzard conditions) for late in the weekend is probably from near Lubbock to Amarillo and into far western Oklahoma. But, areas farther north CANNOT be ruled out yet because the eventual track is still unknown. By late Christmas morning or early afternoon, the situation "should" become a bit clearer. I might have time to do a quick update, but it's best to just rely on information out of the National Weather Service.
One final bit of info...this system will cause extreme rainfall in the warm sector. Look at the precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center. WOW! There will be major flooding in those areas that receive the extreme rain amounts.
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