Update 12/26/15 (time sensitive)

This post is time sensitive and will quickly become outdated due to the nature of the December storm that is impacting the central southern parts of the U.S..  Please rely on the National Weather Service for updated specifics for your area.  You will continue to see varying amounts of snow, ice, and rain amounts forecast by different entities (the media sure seems to enjoy this)!

The late afternoon radar showed a huge of rain and thunderstorms spreading north.



As has been expected, the "storm" has intensified into a tight upper level low as depicted by the satellite image from this Saturday afternoon.



There was a deep and moist fetch of air from the tropical regions into Texas and out across the midwest.  An INCREDIBLE amount of boundary layer moisture had moved north into southern Oklahoma.  Dew point temperatures had risen into the lower 70s as far as southeast Oklahoma.  This could be unprecedented for December 26.  As a result, copious amount of rain along with tornadic thunderstorms have already occurred and will continue to be a threat. The surface map following below shows where the front had ended up (north winds on the poleward side, south winds on the equator side of the boundary).



Back to the satellite image.  There is still some uncertainty of the eventual movement of the upper level low with the storm.  The system has not reached it's maximum intensity so could still change directions pretty easily.  Some of the computer guidance suggests that the low will track as depicted by #2 while a handful of other computer models suggest a track closer to #1.  This will have a huge impact on the eventual snow or ice across Kansas.  For west Texas and the panhandle and eastern New Mexico, it appears pretty certain that there will be a major blizzard.  Again, check weather.gov for details for your specific area (click on the map that pops up).

Back to the track.  If the storm eventually turns more like track number 1, the snow amounts will ramp up farther northwest, perhaps into southeast Colorado.  If the track is more like number 2, the snow amounts, for say Dodge City, will be much, much less.  Again, check the NWS products for the details. There will also be heavy sleet on the east side of the snow area.

Another thing that is certain is the extremely high amounts of rainfall that is expected.  Look at the Weather Prediction Center forecast!  This is absolutely incredible for any month, let alone the last part of December.


Sleet and some snow will also spread into eastern Kansas as the storm departs on Monday.

I'll try and update again on Sunday or Monday.

Looking ahead, there could still be a weather maker just after the first of the year.  I'll try and nail down timing of this later in the week.  I've talked about that possibility in the blog several times now so it would fit the pattern.