Update - February 20, 2015 - Back to winter

In the post I did on Tuesday (click here to read that one), I discussed the record setting cold across the eastern part of the country and the position of the upper level ridge.  First, even this morning, low temperatures were around ALL TIME records across parts of the east.  It was at least -32 this morning in Kentucky.  Amazing!  And better them than us, right?

Second the upper ridge position (click here for that map) was far enough east that it prevented the brutal Arctic air from spreading into the plains.  But now, changes are taking place.  Look at the satellite image below and notice how the upper ridge is shifting west.  (click for a larger image).

On Tuesdays satellite image I pointed out the two systems off the Pacific northwest coast.  They have now rounded the top of this ridge and are heading southeast.  The first one will bring a little rain, freezing rain or sleet to parts of Kansas tonight and then another major snow for Boston later in the weekend.  The other one across southwest Canada will slide south and cause the jet stream above us to get very energetic.  The temperature gradient above the surface will become very compact and with lifting and convergence should become the focus for significant snow Saturday night into early Monday.

The first guess for snowfall through Monday follows.  Don't take the numbers too literally as there will be mesoscale (small) scale processes that will shift the axis of heavier snow during the period.

This outlook will no doubt change so the best advice is to follow your local National Weather Service office for the latest outlook.  Go to www.weather.gov/ and click on your area.

In addition to the snowfall, temperatures will be plummeting.  There may be a small break next week (but don't pay attention too much to those NWS temperature forecasts as they likely will be too warm), but overall it is going to stay cold for the balance of the month. 

Also, there will likely be another storm or two during the 7 to 10 day period following this current storm expected this weekend.   There very well could be areas of far west central Kansas and eastern Colorado that may see upwards to 2 feet of snow between this weekend and March 1st.