As expected this past weekend was ridiculously warm for February with high temperatures on Saturday in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the high plains. Sunday was a bit cooler but still warm and today (Monday is still on the mild side). There were daily records set. But, 80 degree days in February is not that rare as it happens, on average, about once every 7 to 10 years. So, I would say more unusual than rare.
So where is the cold air I've been discussing for a month or so? In the last blog, click here, I showed a current temperature map of Canada. It's amazing, but the map of 2 PM CST temperatures today is just about a mirror image! Check it out! Click here for the map from Thursday afternoon and compare it to this afternoons below....
The storm is broken in two parts but both have forced the jet stream northward.
This storm will turn east and then southeast into the Great Lakes during the next 2 to 3 days. It will bring snow and ice to the far northern plains and Great Lakes and into the northeast U.S. once again. Much of the northern plains which does not currently have snow cover will miss out.
The following was the snow cover across North America as of this morning.
Alright, now what about this cold air.... In the blog I did last week I mentioned the cold would arrive during the February 12-16 time period. At that time the computer forecast models where not even hinting at cold. In fact, some where keeping mild readings into the last part of February. But, based on the cycling of the pattern, the extended East Asian Jetstream and the possibility of a storm along the Japan coast, the cold scenario is likely!
In quite a few of the previous posts (please go read them if you have time) I even mentioned that the cold by mid-February could be the coldest of the season. That is still a possibility. But even so, what is still very likely is the return of the brutal Arctic air, regardless that the models are not picking up on it. I'm sticking with my Feb 12-16 period, centered on Valentines Day. Once the cold arrives there will be about a 10 day period of the cold, but maybe a day or two in between of slight recovery.
As far as precipitation, there should be one or two events during the cold period - which would likely be of the frozen or freezing variety.
I know calving will commence soon for a lot of folks and it just might be during this cold stretch.
I'll attempt an update later this week.
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