Update Feb 5, 2015 - Another warm one!

I about choked from laughing recently as I had several people seriously ask me if winter was over for western Kansas.   Hey, warm days come and go this time of year.  Winter "officially" ends later in March during the spring equinox but for North America that really doesn't mean much.  I assure you, there is plenty of winter weather yet to be unleashed.

Another major warmup is in store for this weekend.  I bet there will be plenty of folks on the links, in the yard and maybe even in the fields.  Hopefully homeowners don't get a crazy idea to scalp their fescue or bluegrass lawns this weekend.  I actually saw that happen two weekends ago!  Why not cut?  Because there is still a high probability of very cold Arctic air and the roots will be susceptible to extreme cold causing damage!

I've been advertising the return of an extended period of Arctic cold starting as early as the 2nd week of February.  In the post I did on the 2nd, I said more likely in 10 to 14 days.  That would make it the 12th - 16th (or starting the last part of the 2nd week, right?).   Even though the computer generated forecast models STILL aren't advertising this possibility, I'm still seeing the writing on the wall. 

Looking at the latest satellite image, the flow is characterized as chaotic.  First, the East Asian jet stream has expanded all the way across the Pacific.  This is an unstable configuration.  Second, the flow across the higher latitudes is rather bizarre (see map).  This may have more to do with the weather regime being in what is called a Modoki (pseudo El Nino). It's really strange!  Also, there are numerous upper level disturbances in the flow, most of which are aimed at the west coast.  On the map they are denoted by the red X.  (click on the image for a large version).

Over the next 7 days these storms will hammer the coast from central California to Washington, bringing copious amounts of precipitation.

Some of this energy from the upper level disturbances across the Pacific will drop southeast and then south and produce an unstable flow over the southern Rockies.  In turn, some of this change may very well bring a little rain or snow to the high plains by mid-week (10th - 12th).

That gets us close the period of Arctic air.  As East Asian jet stream buckles the Arctic air should start moving south.  There is already a cold air source (and getting colder).  Look at the Thursday afternoon temperatures!

There is also a storm advertised to form across the far western Pacific, near the eastern Asian continent coast.  Usually, this leads to downstream amplification of the jet stream, which in turn would support the flow to produce much colder weather.

Next week I'll update my thoughts on an increasing probability of a wetter than average late February and March.  Hint - I'm slightly more optimistic than early thinking.