Update - 04/19/19

With a busy work and home life schedule, it's been difficult getting anything posted to this blog. 

In the previous posting on the 8th (if you haven't read it already, please read it be clicking here), I discussed the difficulties in forecasting weather during the transition from the cold months into the warm months, especially across the high plains.  I ended with this statement -

"In my mind I keep waffling between a dry pattern potentially developing back to "stay the course".  For now, I'm staying the course and will still expect  opportunities for precipitation that should keep general wetness going well into May, and perhaps through much of June."

During this past 10 days, I haven't changed my thinking but each day I'm seeing a disturbing trend of precipitation events "missing" the high plains of western Kansas (and even into central Kansas).  This is somewhat confusing as the pattern, overall, continues to be active.   Can this continue?  Sure it can, but the question is "will it"?

During the past 7 days there was one good event but missed the areas that are progressively getting drier.

 

At the Dodge City at the airport, by Saturday evening it will have been the driest start to April since 1909!  Looking at the potential for precipitation, there is a trend in the upper pattern that this next system may miss this local area to the south - again!  This mornings upper air chart....

 

There was a small closed low  just off the southern California coast.  At the same time there was a stronger upper system entering the Pacific Northwest.  The low near California was and will continue to weaken as it moves into the southwest U.S..  The system across the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast and merge with the decaying southwest low.  The eventual track though after this transition will determine, to a large extent, the eventual precipitation opportunity for the central U.S..  For the past few days it appeared that it would get wet across western Kansas but the trend has been farther south and east.  Here is the current Weather Prediction Center outlook - BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE!

If this upcoming scenario (from Sunday into mid-week) fails to produce much precipitation for western Kansas (which as of Friday afternoon that is what I'm expecting) then there may not be much hope through the remainder of the month!  That said, April may end up as one of the driest on record at Dodge City.  Hard to believe!

Then the six million dollar question - will that dry pattern continue for the majority of the area?  I'm still going to hold on to the notion that, overall, the spring and at least early summer will be wetter than normal.  In fact, the Climate Prediction Center is leaning that direction too (I can't argue at this point).  Here is their outlook...

 

 

Those maps above from the Climate Prediction Center show a probability shift to cooler and wetter than average for the three month period of May, June, and July. 

One final note, there is a SMALL indication that a late month freeze or frost may occur, from around April 29-May 2 across parts of the high plains.  Confidence is not great, but it would fit the pattern.  More on that later.

I'll try and update again late next week when I find bit of free time.