Update - 04/26/19

In the past few posts (read the last one by clicking here) I was having concerns about the dry pattern that had developed across parts of the high plains.  Looking at the precipitation that has occurred this past 7 days.....



You can see that some areas of the southern high plains got good rains and small parts of the northern areas.  But many locations received absolutely nothing during this past week.  Looking even deeper into this dry stretch, for the past 30 days since March 27 reveals this dry area and centered on my house in near Dodge City....



Again, this is a little disturbing to me as this was not totally expected several months ago, even though the active weather pattern continues.  Part of the issue is the track of the systems.  One will take a northern track and the next will take a southern track.  However, the other issue is the quickness of the weather systems keeping the deeper and richer surface moisture across Oklahoma and Texas. 

With the recent rains across west Texas and the Panhandle, the drought monitor continues to show improvement.



As I've mentioned many times throughout this blog, west Texas and the Texas Panhandle is often an area that I look at.   When this area is exceedingly dry during the early spring, this often "feeds" into much of the high plains.  Conversely, when it starts to get wet across this area, there seems to be a feedback of general wetness into the high plains. 

Even though I've had concerns about this current dry stretch (by the way, one of the driest on record for Dodge City), I still am seeing some hope for a return of rains (and believe it or not snow).  So, I still have hope and haven't totally abandoned my earlier thoughts of a wet spring.

The pattern will continue to be active.  On this afternoons satellite image, there are several strong weather systems lined up across the Pacific that will impact the central U.S. during the next week to 10 days.



One system (the red X north of Idaho) will bring another front late Saturday.  But, it appears most of the precip with that will be north of Kansas - but will bring snow to the western and central Corn Belt.  As a stronger systems approaches for the first of the week, there should be an area of precipitation break out ahead of it by Sunday night.  Details and timing should be covered by National Weather Service forecasts (weather.gov).

Additional weather systems will impact the central U.S. during the remainder of the week.  Will there be decent rain across that dry area of Kansas?  For the most of it, yes.  But maybe not everyone, at least yet (more and more systems for May).

Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of week.



As far as that "S" word I mentioned?  In the previous blogs I discussed the period April 29-May 2 that would see below normal temperatures and a late season freeze.  That still appears to be on the table.  Plus, there could be a decent storm to go along with it so that snow might fall from eastern Colorado and far western Kansas (near the Colorado border), northeast into Nebraska.  Confidence is not high, but it does appear to be a possibility.  

I'll try and update again later next week to fine tune that thought.