Update - Feb 13, 2018

In the previous post I did on the 4th (you can read it by clicking here), I ended with "NOTE:  One or two of these systems between now and the end of February, COULD deepen enough to bring a good shot of moisture.  But that "could" is a long-shot and sure wouldn't bet on it at this point."  So, I'm thinking a few are wondering if anything has changed?   Before I dive into that topic, let me take a minute to share something.

I did a presentation this past week and got into a small discussion about some of the local climate/weather changes that have taken place the past 50 years from perhaps farming practices (irrigation/growing corn, breaking out grass, etc.).  I've noticed a few changes in temperature and the dew point (and rainfall on average) over the decades and have often wondered and suspected that some of the changes were enhanced by agriculture.  This morning I ran across an article that might be worth reading if you have time:  The link to that article "Intensive agriculture influences U.S. regional summer climate..." is: http://news.mit.edu/2018/intensive-agriculture-influences-us-regional-summer-climate-0213

Back to our weather...

First, I've been doing quite a few presentations this past couple of months and have been sharing a graphic illustrating the dry stretch the high plains has observed.  For the 129 day period from October 7th through today (Feb 13th), only scant amounts of precipitation have fallen on most places across the high plains, generally south of Interstate 70.  For some locations, this is a record for that time period.  For Dodge City, ANY 129 day stretch has actually experienced lower totals.  See the chart below:

The * denotes a record for that location for this exact time period.

It's interesting that the driest 129 day period in Dodge City occurred in late 1879 and into 1880.  But right after that it was a wet in May, July and August. I'm not saying to expect the same this year, I just found that interesting.   Even in 1904 it was wet in May and August.  

Since October 1, 2017, many areas of the plains have missed out on precipitation.  Most of that light blue is well less than an inch of moisture.  During the first few days of October there was a pretty good amount of precip near Amarillo and Dalhart (also farther north and east).

  

Snowfall this past fall and so far this winter has been varied.  By the way, the maximum of 893.3 inches is somewhere up in the mountains of Washington.  Click for a larger version.


 

Looking at this mornings satellite image....
 
There are a few important features showing up. I'm intrigued by the flow from the deep tropics in two different regions.  The first is across the Pacific west of Mexico and it extends up into the southern plains.  It's not bringing rain or snow, but is pumping upper level Pacific moisture into the region. I would really like to see that continue going into the spring.  This feature was also present back on the 4th as mentioned in the previous post.  Then there is flow from the deep tropics north across Hawaii associated with a storm (the big red L) located northwest of the islands.    I always like seeing  this type of flow from the tropics into the higher latitudes.   There won't be any immediate impacts on the high plains weather.  But it's something I'll be watching.

Ok, what about any changes that "could" allow a storm to deepen to our west increasing the odds of getting a decent shot of moisture.  The latest long range outlook with the Global Forecast System computer model has ZERO precip for much of southwest KS into the panhandles through the remainder of February.  Is that going to be right?  Well, I'm seeing something that is SLIGHTLY encouraging.  At least I see a glimmer of hope or at least the "long shot" I've been hoping for.

There are quite a few signs of at least a temporary change.  The Southern Oscillation Index has crashed over the past few weeks and the 90 day average is at it's lowest since early September.  That is likely the result of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been active for a while.  There is a prediction by some of the models and ensembles that this MJO will stall out in phase 7 before it decays in that phase.  In most cases during February, the MJO in phase 7 promotes a better than normal chance of below normal temperatures on average across the plains.   Here is that chart....
 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to go negative and stay there for a while.  The predictability of the AO is not that good, but it's something to watch. Typically with a negative AO the opportunity for Arctic air spilling into our side of the northern hemisphere is enhanced.  Here is that chart...

  

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is forecast to go negative and stay there.  Again the predictability of the NAO is not good either, but what if?  Typically with a negative phase of the NAO there is blocking over Greenland, which also enhances an Arctic airmass into the U.S..  A combined negative AO and negative NAO should force the jetstream farther south.    Here is the NAO chart...

 

All right....there are some big "ifs" here. IF the sudden decrease in the SOI has a contribution and IF the MJO stalls in phase 7 and IF the AO goes negative and IF the NAO goes negative, then I could see some major changes to the pattern in 10 to 14 days.  I'm hoping this change would lead to a deeper upper level trough that doesn't progress too quickly into the plains. That "should" promote a much better chance of meaningful precipitation.  

This pattern could last into early March.  Lately I've been telling folks that March could be warmer than average, but now I'm leaning just the opposite (colder than average).  In general, March might be pretty active and wild for much of the plains.  I just fear that it will be just north and east of southwest Kansas.  I hope to fine tune that possibility here in a week or two.


BTW, for some reason, back in the fall I told a bunch of people that March 5th was my "gut feeling" date for a high plains blizzard.   Welp, we'll see.  Ha, I'll probably be golfing without a jacket that day.

I'll try to update again later next week.