Update 2/4/18

Since the last post on the 25th of January (if you want to read it click here), the pattern has started to transition back into a cold one, in general.  This was expected.  What we'll probably see across the high plains will be a great deal of variability instead of getting completely locked into cold.  That is, up and down with a wild swing from mild to bitter cold.  Today (Sunday the 4th) is not exception with bone chilling wind and cold that followed a very mild Saturday.  One reason for the flip-flopping on temperatures is that we are on the western edge of the large and cold airmass.

On the satellite image, several features caught my eye.  The obvious one is the Low (red L) off the Aleutian chain that was helping to pump warmer air into Alaska and thus forcing cold air into the U.S. east of the Rockies. Another was the blue H across northern Baja California.  I'm going to start watching this for a while because this MIGHT be a player as the growing season starts (and that outcome would be really bad).   The other feature is shown by the whiteness across the lower right of the image.  This is tropical moisture and tropical jet that could end up being a player by early spring (and that outcome could be good).  That is something else I'll be watching as time goes on.  Overall, this satellite image is a mirror image of what has periodically been going on since late fall.


For the next couple of weeks there will continue to be wide swings in temperatures with a continuation of frequent fronts and just a little bit of moisture.  Late Saturday evening (yesterday the 3rd) there was a surprise weak system that brought scattered showers but minimal rain.  It sure was nice though to have that "smell" and remove the dust out of the air at least temporarily.  The Dodge City airport got a whopping 0.04" which brings the total to 0.14" since October 7, or during the past 119 days. Wow, that is nuts!.   Other areas around the high plains haven't even had that much.  But, it's also not the driest stretch we have on the record books believe it or not. It's still dismal.....

Today (Sunday) snow that was falling across the northern parts of the high plains and into northeast Kansas.  A few spots may have picked up 3 or 4 inches of snow (it was still snowing as of Sunday afternoon).

As I've mentioned for months, there will continue to be opportunities for "storms" but those chances will be few and far between.  Another system will bring a chance for moisture Monday night and Tuesday and then again late in the week or over the weekend.  At this point, I wouldn't expect significant precipitation, but I guess anything is better than zero.  Unfortunately the southern half of the high plains (Elkhart to Liberal and on south) may not get anything at all.

NOTE:  One or two of these systems between now and the end of February, COULD deepen enough to bring a good shot of moisture.  But that "could" is a long-shot and sure wouldn't bet on it at this point.