Update 02/19/18

Welcome back to winter! After a day in the 70s on Sunday, albeit with nasty wind, winter has returned.  Unfortunately those forecasting on Sunday made huge errors in believing computer models that had this front stalling near the Oklahoma border and actually lifting back north.  Shallow "Arctic" fronts in the winter often move 100's of miles farther south.  This setup though for this Monday (and into Tuesday)  is a change!  A low pressure center will develop across northeast New Mexico and will provide a HUGE gradient of temperatures and moisture as the front slows across Oklahoma.  Look at this mornings surface map...(click for a larger version).



Dew point temperatures have actually made into the 50s across southwest Texas.  This might be a subtle sign going into spring.  More in later posts..   Also dew point temperatures well into the 60s have streamed well north. The setup will be very favorable for excessive rainfall from Texas into the Tennessee valley with flooding likely.  On the cold side there should be quite a swath of freezing rain.


Look at those amounts for the corn belt (especially eastern)!

For the high plains we won't benefit, at least this time.  But it's somewhat of a good sign to see gulf moisture make a run a the central part of the U.S.!

Looking at this mornings satellite image...




That subtropical moisture (btw, see the last post I did discussing this by clicking here) still remains and will be partly responsible for the excessive rainfall mentioned above.  There is a lot going on in this satellite image.  I'm still finding that the presence of this subtropical moisture somewhat encouraging going into the growing season.  There is also a wet system near Hawaii with a "background" ridge extending up into Alaska.

In that previous post I did on the 13th, there were signs of a change:  The fairly robust MJO; both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation going strongly negative; and the Southern Oscillation Index dropping to values not observed since September. All four are still moving in a direction of change. And that first change?  I believe it's this widespread precipitation that is expected on the above map.   I also think there may be an opportunity for at least SOME precipitation across the high plains by around the 25th, give or take a day.  It's not a big chance, but at least something to watch.  Keep praying and keep your fingers crossed.

We obviously need something.  This 135 day stretch since Oct 7th continues to be a record.  For Dodge City....



Did you see that there was actually rainfall across west Texas during the past 7 days?  Look at the map!  That is also a change.



Going back to the previous post...I mentioned that going into March and March in general "could" be wild across the plains.  This is a start.   I'll try and update again by the 23rd/24th.