Is the gravy train about to leave the area? Update 06/08/17

In the post I did on May 25th (you can read it here), I said...

"Now does this mean this wetness will continue?  Absolutely not!  The faucet could shut off at any time.  But, it's been my experience, and I've talked about it in this blog many times, that once it gets wet and green during the spring across the central plains, there can be a feedback into the atmosphere.  Initially we'll see that with lower daytime temperatures.  I'm going to be optimistic and go with overall above normal precipitation (some areas will be lower) into mid/late summer.  But, I still think there will be dry periods and during those dry periods there should be pretty hot temperatures, just not that long of periods."

It would appear that we are now (after this afternoon's rain) headed into one of the stretches of dry and hot weather.  The question that I'm starting to wrestle with is will the pattern trump the green and wet conditions and have frequent dry and hot periods?

First, here is a map of estimated rainfall during the past 14 days.  Some areas continued very wet (i.e., Ford County where Dodge City is located), while a few others have received below normal rainfall during this two week stretch.  Such is the case with warm season rainfall.

Incredibly, Dodge City is now WAY ahead of the pace to have a record wet year. But as I said, it could shut off at any time.  Is that time now? 

Looking at this mornings satellite image....

There was an anomalously strong upper system moving  into the western US., that will bring much colder weather to the west and then severe weather to the northern Rockies and northern Plains this weekend and into the first of the week.  But for the high plains the EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) will intensify and spread across the area.  This will likely result in temperatures aloft that will be far too warm to allow thunderstorms to occur across the high plains.  It will also result in much hotter temperatures.  As everything passes and digs into the eastern U.S., temperatures aloft "should" cool enough to allow a return of at least scattered thunderstorms by the end of next week.  Thus, it "should" be about a 7-8 day stretch of dry for the high plains.  

Beyond this pattern change and through the end of next week, things get a little fuzzy.  I see some signs of heading into an early summer pattern of hot and mostly dry.  But at the same time, there are still signs of occasional episodes of thunderstorm chances.  Again, once it gets green and wet, there is often feedback into the atmosphere.  But I have also seen patterns of rainfall just completely shut off.  I'm cautiously optimistic that there will still be enough chances for storms that it won't come to a screeching halt with heat getting out-of-control. 

BTW, here is a look at the U.S. drought monitor.  It's pretty impressive the amount of area that have seen a drought removal!  The northern plains (specifically North Dakota) should see some improvement over the next 7 to 10 days.

 ...and the possible precipitation through next Thursday (the precip over western KS was falling today - Thursday)...

 I'll try and post again around the 15th.