Summertime weather - Updated 06/19/17

As expected (or feared), the weather made a sudden change to a summertime pattern.  A huge upper level ridge/high has set up over the Four Corners region.  Unfortunately for much of the high plains, temperatures in the middle levels of the atmosphere have warmed enough to prevent much in the way of thunderstorms, at least widespread.  Now, what you see on the satellite image below, is actually a favorable pattern to get the North American Monsoon going (in 2-3 weeks).   This upper high (the big ol' ugly blue H) will meander back to the west or even south and southeast at times and will lose it's magnitude too at times.  What this results in is occasional northwest flow events allowing thunderstorm complexes to move into the high plains.  For the next several weeks there will be periods of "turning hot", brief cool downs (significant at times), dry stretches but intermixed with a few opportunities for thunderstorms.  At least it's NOT a "hot and dry for the foreseeable future".

Here is that satellite image:




We just went through one of the hot and dry periods, especially across parts of the panhandles, eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas.  Then one of those brief cool downs occurred yesterday and today.  The flow aloft will be conducive for a few thunderstorm complexes this week, especially during the evening and overnight hours as that high has shifted slightly west.  Unfortunately (or fortunately for those still cutting) not everyone will get much rain. 

The following map shows how much rain has fallen the past 14 days.  As you can see (or probably already know), many areas have received very little or nothing at all. 

Click for a larger version.

After hot temperatures, especially the last half of this week, the high will be suppressed and will shift southwest.  This will allow another cool down this weekend and into next week.  This next cool down will be even cooler than what came through yesterday and today.  That could favor better chances for rain across Texas and eastern New Mexico.  However, this time of year differences can occur easily with just minor changes in the flow (surface and aloft).

Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center for the "average" amount of rainfall possible through this coming weekend.  Some will get more, some less (or much less):

  I'll try and update again by the end of the week.