Update 04/22/17

Time has slipped away with a busy work schedule.  Since I do this blog on my "own" time, it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep up with.

First, in the last post I did on the 12th (you can read it by clicking here), I had mentioned a chilly period between April 23-25.  That time is here and indeed there is some chilly air.  There will likely be frost and a light freeze across the high plains late Saturday night and Sunday morning (23rd).  Then a quick warmup will ensue during the first part of the week.  I had also mentioned another possible period when there "could" be a freeze (with a low probability) for the 29th-May 3.  That is still on track for the high plains. The corn belt will likely see freezing temperatures.   Another "cold" period for the high plains will be during the second week of May but most likely NOT freezing, just below normal temps.

During this past 10 days there have been several weather systems that brought substantial rains to the high plains, but there were also areas that have missed out on much of the rain.  Here is a map of precipitation ending yesterday (Friday) morning and DOES NOT include what fell during the day Friday:

Looking at the satellite image from early this morning,

the system that brought the rains to Kansas had shifted into the Mississippi Valley and was moving away.  High pressure will bring the chance for that frost/freeze this Saturday night.  The red L on the left hand side of the satellite map was a strong storm that will weaken as it moves into the northern Rockies.  The flow aloft will increase and become more westerly which will promote windy and warm weather by Monday and Tuesday.  Any chance for additional thunderstorms this next week will be dependent on how quickly gulf moisture can return into the high plains.  There is some chance that the high plains will be on the "cold" side of additional systems this next week so that the severe weather threat will be farther east.  It looks like at least some precipitation will be possible across western Kansas but I'm not confident at this point since a lot of development has to take place.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of this next week.

Looking further ahead, I still don't have a really good feel for the spring/summer outlook.  I'm leaning slightly on the favorable side for the high plains (NOT west Texas) as far as periodic precipitation and not quite as hot as I thought it could be.  I'll try and nail that down soon.  As far as the corn belt, I still feel that there will NOT be a drought and precipitation should be favorable during the growing season.

Here is the current drought monitor map:

And here is the outlook through July 31 from the Climate Prediction Center:

Wow, that is being optimistic (except the southeast U.S.)!  I'm not saying that it is wrong at this point, but wow!

I'll do my best to update on Wednesday.  If I can't get it done on Wednesday, the next post won't be until May 1.  If only I was retired....