Update 04/07/17

WOW!  Are you kidding?  Except for the ice storm in January, this past week and a half was one of the wettest and widespread periods that we've seen in a long while.  Although there wasn't anything since the ice storm in mid January (over 2 months!), the amount accumulated at the Dodge City airport since January 1st is the 2nd wettest start to a year since records have been kept (since 1875)!  The wettest was in 1973.  You might wonder, how did 1973 end up?  DRY in May and June!  But then wet from July into the fall.   Could that repeat this year?  Yes for different reasons, or maybe not even close.  I'll explain at the end of this post.

The latest satellite image this Friday evening.

The most pronounced feature is the HUGE ridge right across the high plains.  This is one feature I'm afraid may repeat later this spring and summer.  If it reoccurs in this exact location we might be looking at stretches of very hot and dry weather this summer.  BUT maybe not....again, I'll explain at the end of the post.

So, this wet period we just finished.  On March 17, I posted about several opportunities for systems towards the end of March.  BUT, I also thought the trend of systems moving too far north to benefit the high plains would continue, much like they had been doing.  Maybe it was all the prayers after the devastating fires but weather systems ended up being much more energetic and far enough south to bring the rains (and heavy snow with the last system across parts of the Panhandles and far southwest Kansas).  It couldn't have been more perfect!  Look at how much moisture fell during this two week stretch!

But now the question is, will this wet stretch continue?  If the pattern that we've been in since the fall and winter re-appears, then the gravy train may have ended.  But, since the fall it looks like several of the forcing areas across the Pacific (and even Arctic) have changed, and maybe to our benefit.   The current ridge is a little concerning since it has been a mainstay for much of the fall and winter.  Will that dominate?  Or, has there been enough changes to allow weather systems to tap into increasing amounts of gulf moisture?  I think the next 2 to 3 weeks should tell the story.

First there is another storm that should arrive about mid-week (late Tuesday into Thursday).  It will be different that what we had recently.  IF the gulf moisture can return in time, there very well could be another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Don't count on it, but it's actually looking pretty good right now for the eastern parts of the high plains (the farther east, the more likely it'll happen).  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday.


Also, I had pointed out in the last blog that a cold spell (enough to bring a significant freeze) could occur between the 12th and 19th.  There are "some" signs of this at the moment but I'm not ready to jump on it.  If we do get a round of precip mid-week and get the colder air to settle back into the area, then there should be yet another opportunity or two for more precipitation going into late April.

Also, it's been my experience that a very wet late March and into April across the plains "can" start a cycle of feedback where it's easier for the atmosphere to produce additional moisture.  But, keep in mind 1973 when it turned dry in May and June.  I need to see how this next 2 to 3 weeks behaves before I'm ready to call that one. 

The point is that this very unexpected wet period may be a sign of changes.  But I'm not sold on that just yet. Again, I need 2 to 3 weeks of monitoring.

BTW, the latest US Drought monitor shows the improvement of the drought conditions.  I'm not sure if the calculations used this past weekends data. 

I'll try and update again around Wednesday.