Update - 04/12/17

Just a short update....

Since the last post on the 7th (as usual, you can read that by clicking (here), the weather systems have moved north bringing at least a temporary dry period.  Also, there was a light freeze Monday and Tuesday across parts of Kansas.

First off, the significant freeze that I had pointed out to be possible between the 12th and 19th.  THAT is not materializing!  There still could be some chilly air around the April 23-25 period but I don't see clear signs at this point.  The only other possible period is getting rather late, and that would be between April 29 and May 3.   That last one would be a detriment for sure. But at this point, I would put the probabilities of that at less than 15 percent of a significant killing freeze.

In the previous post on the 7th, I discussed a weather system that was looking pretty good at bringing some more moisture (I mentioned between late Tuesday and Thursday).  So far, that is pretty much on track.  There will be at least scattered thunderstorms across Kansas this late Wednesday but more widespread across west Texas (they need it).  A weak system should bring another round tomorrow (Thursday) as boundary layer moisture increases.  Not everyone will get rain, but many will.  Isolated spots that see repeated thunderstorms may get quite a bit.

Here is the latest satellite showing the system:


Another possibility for showers and thunderstorms will occur late in the weekend and then several times during next week.  But, I'm not sure just how far west and south the activity will be.  It might concentrate on areas farther north and east.

Here is the Weather Prediction Centers outlook through next Tuesday:
Although I haven't given it much detailed thought yet, I'm getting a pretty good hunch that there won't be much of a drought across the corn belt this growing season.  I'm seeing some subtle signs that it might turn out favorably (as far as moisture).   For the high plains, I need a few more weeks to analyze the pattern and to see if and how these next few systems behave.

I'll try and update early next week.