Updated 04/08/16 - Only slight optimism

In the post I did on the 1st (read it here) my pessimistic tone for moisture should have been evident.  Please read that post if you haven't already.  I showed the upper level blocking ridge parked off the southwest U.S. coast which has been a big player during the winter.  Guess what?  At least temporarily, the blocking has shifted southwest a bit which will benefit California, Arizona, and New Mexico during the next week!  Is this a sign of changes I've been looking for to get back to the pattern we had during the fall?  Unfortunately, not exactly.  Has my pessimistic tone improved?  Unfortunately, not exactly.

Looking at the satellite image....



As shown on the map, the blocking ridge (blue area) has indeed shifted or at least has been suppressed for the time being.   It could be because of the high amplitude flow across the Gulf of Alaska, which means this suppression may only be temporary.  If the plains can't benefit from this change, then I'm really afraid of what we have coming later this spring and summer in terms of heat and dryness!

There was a strong upper level system over Arizona this morning that has brought abnormally moist air into that state and into New Mexico.  Good for them.  Dry air, however, remains over the plains.  The "X" over Arizona and more importantly the "L"  off the southwest coast will bring increased opportunity for at least some rain to the plains.  But I have a gut hunch that only a few will benefit.  I sure hope I'm wrong.  There is indication that another system will drop into the southwest U.S. which should also bring a chance for precipitation to the plains later next week.  So, let's keep our fingers crossed.  I would like to see some more indicators to follow to have a better idea if changes are indeed occurring.  Long range computer models continue to show a "wet" signal, but they had also shown a wet signal for early spring, which never materialized.  I'll try and get an updated post out later next week (I'm still incredibly busy).

The Weather Prediction Center has the following precipitation outlook valid though next Thursday: