More rain and storms - Updated 5/13/15

The upper flow has definitely got more favorable for severe weather and rain this month. After a break from the weather over the weekend, the latest system was lifting northeast across the central and southern plains this Wednesday afternoon.  Widespread showers, with a few isolated thundershowers, were progressing across the area.  No severe weather was anticipated with the system.

The precipitation forecast for this first system provided by the Weather Prediction Center (likely too much in general).  Click for a larger map.

This rain is on top of the excessive rainfall that has occurred over the past 30 days.  The following map is a total for the past 30 days ending this morning (before the current round).  Click for a larger version.

A closeup of Oklahoma....

Before I discuss the next system... The past weekend storm not only brought severe weather with tornadoes, but it also brought heavy snows and freezing temperatures.  The snow cover map for Monday showed...

Low temperatures behind the storm fell to freezing or a little colder across much of the high plains north of Dodge City.  There no doubt was some wheat damage on fields that were flowering. I haven't heard about the corn.


Attention is then drawn to the west where another strong upper system was poised to move out of the western U.S. this weekend.  Another risk of severe weather is likely.  The question is timing and the exact location which is unknown this far out, due to mesoscale processes that are not predictable.

The satellite image shows the current weather maker and the next gaining strength across the west...

The low across the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast.  The best threat of severe weather will be Saturday across the plains.  Again, there are just too many uncertainties to pinpoint a location.  Also, the next several storms will keep adding the precipitation.

The Weather Prediction Center offers the following possibility of precipitation through next Wednesday...

As I stated in the post I did on the 11th (click here for that post), I discussed the flooding that had already occurred and the expected additional flooding that will materialize as addition rains occur.  Even on the middle stretches of the Arkansas River in Colorado has seen flooding and more is likely.

Looking further into the future, it appears that this wetter pattern will likely persist well into June and perhaps longer.  More on that later.