Short update - 11/5/18

The previous post I did on the 19th of October (if you haven't read it, please do so by clicking here), the satellite image I posted showed the state of the jetstream at that time.  Today, there are major differences.  Here is this afternoons look...



The biggest change is the very strong jetstream that is coming off the Gulf of Alaska and southeast towards the central plains.  Minor disturbances in this strong jet have brought a couple of small rain events to the central plains during the past 4 or 5 days.  It will also be contributing to a possible tornado outbreak across the southeast U.S. later this Monday evening.  The configuration has also allowed for a very cold airmass to build up across the higher latitudes of Canada.

The little red X across southern Alaska appears to be a signal for some amplification that will bring a swath of precipitation across the central U.S. late Wednesday into Thursday, and that would be in the form of snow.  For forecasting purposes, these type of dynamic weather producers get most of their forcing from the wind aloft.  Thus, they have very sharp gradients of nothing to potentially a lot of precipitation. In this case, you probably have already seen forecast graphics of snowfall - but everything I've seen is computer forecast generated.  The point with that is that every time the forecast output is run, the resultant precipitation is all over the board, i.e., the models can't be trusted for specific forecasts!   For the purpose of this blog, go to https://www.weather.gov/ for the most up-to-date NWS forecast.

The configuration of the winds aloft will also contribute to much colder weather for a few days later this week.  If it continues in that configuration, there would also most likely be another very cold shot of cold air the following week.  In the blog I did on the 19th (see above link), I mentioned November being near to above normal on temperatures for the entire month (but that was with very low confidence).  These couple of cold shots (this and next week) will probably knock the average for the month down closer to normal. 

Other than the precipitation this Wed/Thu there is not a lot showing up afterwards, at least for the high plains, through mid-month.  The pattern is still evolving.  I still need time to identify the main areas of forcing of the pattern.  Another 2-3 weeks may be needed for that.

Update 10/19/2018

In the previous post I did on the 11th (read it by clicking here), the discussion was on the VERY wet period that was in the process of ending and the expected cold coming on the heals.  As most are aware, the cold behind the system was record setting at some location, but regardless was cold enough to do damage to some of the fall crops, most unfortunately.  I saw some readings down into the single digits, especially where there was decent snow cover.  The snow was not unexpected either as I did mention that too.  However, unexpectedly there was light rain yesterday and last night across much of the high plains.  This COULD be one of the signals I'll be looking for as I make the outlook going into the next growing season.  More on that later.

In the meantime, here is the latest satellite image....




There are a couple of interesting and possibly important features on this map.  First, as I mentioned the rain that fell yesterday and last night had been unexpected when I did the post on the 11th.  It was a weak feature that was "left over" from the pattern that brought the cold.  I did not foresee this moving into the plains and providing support for precipitation.  Presently there is another weak system (the X over central California).  It is another minor system that looks like it could provide support for a tad more rain next week for the high plains (around Tue/Wed or so).  This could be one of those signals for things to come this winter.  More on that later.


Also on the satellite image is the red x on the southeast (bottom right) side of the image above.  This is yet another tropical system in the Pacific that will impact Texas as it moves north and northeast as it weakens.  Wow this flooding across central Texas has been unreal and these additional system will extend and even worsen the flooding.   

Here is the precipitation outlook through the end of next week that is provided by the Weather Prediction Center....

Back to the satellite image, the jetstream (strong winds aloft) that extends from  the tropical pacific across Hawaii (green line on the bottom left) probably won't impact the plains yet, but it is also another signal I'll be watching for this winter.

I've had several ask about favorable field week going well into November (primarily to finish harvesting fall crops).   In general, it appears somewhat favorable going into the first week of November with just a few minor rain events (i.e., the one next Tue/Wed).  I don't expect warm and windy though at least through Halloween. I really don't have a good feeling for November but if I was to take a guess - I would go with normal to above normal temperatures on average and near to below normal on precipitation.  Again, just a wag.

The fall is one of the most difficult times to make an outlook as the new pattern is just now getting established, as I've discussed numerous times in this blog over the years.  It depends on where the forcing for the pattern is located and how much contribution each area is providing that is producing the pattern.  The very wet start to October; the record or near record cold;  the minor systems across the southern Rockies and Great basin;  the excessive rainfall in central Texas; the continued tropical systems moving north into the southern U.S.; the tropical jetstream that is moving out of the tropics and across Hawaii... - these are just SOME of the signals I'll be incorporating into an outlook going forward.  Other things will be considered too.  But what is causing those outcomes?  That is the six million dollar question that I'm trying to determine.

You may have seen the OFFICIAL outlook that was released by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday the 19th.  I disagree with it!  What I really don't like is their message which is "A mild Winter is expected".  Mild to me implies warm with many days of golfing opportunities.  But mild for winter might really mean above normal temperatures compared to winter temperatures that are generally pretty cold.  Really to have a good idea, I would still need another 3-4 weeks to watch this new pattern unfold.

My initial gut feeling and thoughts is this winter should be much snowier (or maybe more freezing rain) with temperatures at or below normal.  I should say snowier from October 1 through April 30.  My best analog year I found is 2009/2010 (for various reasons). As time gets into November, I should have a much better idea so will fine tune (or completely throw out) that initial gut feeling.

Update - 10/11/18

In the quick post I did on Friday (read it by clicking here) I showed the map of potential rainfall from then until the end of this week.  All-in-all that was a pretty good outlook!.  The largest amount of measured rain was near Overland Park with 11.39" but there were many, many reports of 6 to 10 inches across much of Kansas, western and northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle!  The flooding that ensued was at major levels and there may end up being record marks reaches before all the water recedes.

Back on the 28th of September I mentioned a hard freeze by the middle of October.  There has already been some light freeze conditions in parts of western Kansas (and killing freeze in Nebraska) but the coldest with this current pattern is still a few days away - but get ready!

First, here is a map of rainfall from this wet period ending early this morning (11th)...(click for a larger map)



BTW, the rainfall at the Dodge City airport has already shattered the October record!  The previous wettest October at the airport was 5.00" in 2008 and at the office the total is already 5.95"!  Records go back to 1874!

Looking at the afternoon satellite image....



The flow aloft remains active!  There will be some overrunning of the cold air in place that will generate light rain tonight and for a while of Friday.  The on to the southwest....Hurricane Sergio was moving northeast towards northwest Mexico and the remnants will cross Oklahoma Friday night or Saturday.  More heavy rain is likely across that area.  At the same time, the red X (upper level system) that was approaching western Canada today will dive south into the Rockies over the weekend.  That will help tap into some really chilly air that will be delivered to the high plains late Sunday into Monday.  With the flow aloft, there will likely be a good deal of precipitation with the cold air - yes that means SNOW!  I won't give specifics in this posting as forecasting amounts will depend on exact placement of upper level dynamics.  But, it does appear likely that some areas of the high plains will receive more than six inches of snow!  One source you can check is https://www.weather.gov/ddc/winter.  Replace the "ddc" with the NWS office that covers your area (ict, gld, ama, gid, etc.).

Temperatures will be falling most of Sunday and freezing conditions will have already overspread the high plains by nightfall Sunday.  Morning temperatures Monday will likely be down into the teens across the higher elevations of the high plains (i.e., near the Colorado border) with readings well into the 20s as far east as as Pratt and Medicine Lodge.

Here is the expected precipitation amounts through next Thursday (although the majority will fall before Tuesday)...


After mid-week, the pattern should start to shift a bit so that dryer and "warmer" weather will return and should start to dry things out, although that will take some time as it won't get that warm.   I hope to have some time by next week to go into detail of what to expect going into next Spring.  I'll need some quality time to get an idea.  That update will be coming soon.

Update 10/5/18

Unfortunately there has been no fee time and I've been on the road just about every day.  Just a very quick update for the upcoming wet period...

During the last few days, I'm sure most of you have see various maps that resemble this....



The map above is the outlook through next Friday the 13th from the Weather Prediction Center.  The amounts should not be taken literally but the area of maximum rainfall should be pretty close to the area that receives the heaviest rains over this next 7 day period.  Many areas in the heavier rain area will receive at least 5 inches during this period.  I won't be surprised at all to see observations of 10 inches for this 7 day period, somewhere within the orange/brown.  It won't come all at once but over the period of 3 or 4 systems.  But obviously this would be too much considering agriculture activities. The risk of flooding in many locations that had flooding back in early September is a real threat.

I'll do my best to update early next week.

Update 09/28/18

In the previous post I did on the 21st (you can read it by clicking here) I discussed it being dry from that point into early October but with perhaps a little bit of precipitation for the first part of this week.  It did rain but most areas got sprinkles and few about 0.05".  I also mentioned several strong frontal passages expected (and they have occurred) and the possibility of the first hard freeze for much of the northern plains and perhaps into the midwest for the period of Sept 28 (today) into the 2nd.  The front that swept into Kansas and Oklahoma this morning was the leading edge of pretty chilly air!  There was widespread low temperatures well into the 20s this morning across the northern plains.  Widespread frost and a light freeze will occur this Friday night/ Saturday morning that will extend into Iowa and Illinois (and a hard freeze into Minnesota).  For Kansas there should be enough cloud cover to prevent any frost - for this time.


The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is currently forming and is getting established. Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.  I'm already seeing some significant changes across the eastern Pacific.  It will be interesting as this settles into the pattern here in a couple of weeks.

For this next seven days attention is drawn to a major hurricane across the eastern Pacific.  Looking at the satellite image from this afternoon....

 

Hurricane Rosa was very powerful and was moving straight north (thanks to those changes across the Pacific that I mentioned above).  The hurricane will weaken as it moves north (cooler waters) but the impacts will be felt across a large area of the southwest U.S. in the form of torrential rainfall.  The remnants will likely  move as far east as western Colorado.  There is a very small chance that it could move farther east which would impact the high plains (but not likely).  Regardless, several of those systems across the Pacific will eventually impact the central U.S. during the next 7 days or so.  Details are HIGHLY uncertain so the map of precipitation provided by the Weather Prediction Center going into the end of next week will likely change.  Here is that map with the current thinking....

 
I will do my best to give an update later next week.  I'm starting to see signs pointing to a major cold push (i.e. a hard freeze into at least Kansas) by mid-October.  Again, hopefully I can find a little free time to update later next week.


 

Update - 09/21/18

In the post I did on Monday the 17th (to read it click here) I discussed the tropical system that was expected to develop across the Baja area of California (more specifically the Gulf of Baja).  In that post was the map of potential rainfall during provided by the Weather Prediction Center.   Quote "Don't take values or maximum amounts literally.  This is just a first approximation.  The Baja system has not fully developed and the front has not made a move yet.  But, it appears very likely that widespread precipitation across the central plains will occur.  The question is exactly where and how much."
 

This this another example of the intricacies of weather and how predicting exact values even a few days out are nearly impossible.  Widespread precipitation did occur across the plains, BUT some areas got very little.  Plus, it ends up as just a one day event for many.  Here is a look at the rainfall during the 24 hour period ending this Friday morning (09/21) at 7 AM.



The majority of the very heavy rain has shifted quite a bit farther south than what originally appeared possible.  There are several reasons.  First the cold front was a bit stronger and thus ended up moving farther south.  Second, the tropical system did eventually develope as expected.  But the track of the system ended up a bit farther south too!  The result is that the heavy and widespread rains are expected to be centered over Oklahoma instead of north central Kansas as depicted in the early Monday post.    Details of exact tracks of systems (fronts, upper level disturbances, etc. will almost always be off to a degree - that is if they even develop).

Here is the afternoons satellite showing the position of the remnants of the Baja system and the brightness  over much of Oklahoma where the heaviest rains were occurring...

 

As of 420 PM Friday, there had already been nearly a foot of rain southeast of Norman, OK and it wasn't even close to being done!  Many areas of flooding were occurring.  THIS could have been farther west and north where many were drilling winter wheat or harvesting corn!  

 

Looking ahead another very small chance for precipitation is possible early next week (Tue/Wed) but odds are rather small.  

Here is the potential rainfall trough next week provided by the Weather Prediction Center...

 

In general, it should be dry into early October.  There are hints of several strong frontal passages late next week and into the following week (28th-02nd) which may bring the first hard freeze to much of the northern plains and perhaps midwest.  I won't be surprised if there is at least frost into northern Kansas on a few of those mornings.

The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is beginning to form and getting established during this next few weeks.  Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.   I'll also try and get another post done sometime next week to update on the possible mid-week precip.

Update 09/17/18

Overdue posting of the High Plains Weather!  I got really busy this past few weeks and since this blog is done on my personal "free" time, I just got overwhelmed and unable to post anything.   The previous post on the 31st of August was during the middle of an unseasonably wet and cool period.  That ended, essentially, about a week ago on the 10th.  Many areas of plains received widespread precipitation but unfortunately many areas had way TOO much rain with many locations flooded.

The map of precipitation is not available and I don't have the resources at the moment to generate a map.

This past week and weekend got very warm and windy which is rather typical for the first half of September.    Many have asked if this was related to Hurricane Florence on the east coast and the short answer is NO!  Now that the Atlantic Basin is getting very quiet (tropical system wise), the forcing is transitioning to the Pacific side.  Most importantly for the plains is the gathering energy across the eastern Pacific and western Mexico.  It appears rather likely that a tropical system will develop near the Baja region.  At the same time there will be a series of upper level systems racing across the northern plains which will contribute to a cold front moving into the central plains by Wednesday night or Thursday.  On this afternoons satellite, those upper systems are denoted by the red X's across the Pacific NW.  The potential Baja system is the X and additional thunderstorms (white blobs to the right of the green jet stream) near the right hand corner of the image...

The impacts of the front moving into the plains and the approach of the tropical Baja system should result in widespread thunderstorms by the end of the week.  Those that are even close to drilling wheat (if it's dried out enough) may want to rethink that planting as some locations could get excessive rainfall and runoff/erosion.  Those that might be laying feed down - you might also want to reconsider until after the weekend.  Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center....

Don't take values or maximum amounts literally.  This is just a first approximation.  The Baja system has not fully developed and the front has not made a move yet.  But, it appears very likely that widespread precipitation across the central plains will occur.  The question is exactly where and how much.

I'll try and update again by the end of the week.