A good one but not for everyone

In the post I did on the 20th (read it here) I discussed the "glimmer of hope" that would be possible in May.  We got two of those glimmers, but really only benefited from this last one.  On the 20th there was an upper system WAY out in the Pacific and it had a long way to go to get in an ideal position to bring what appeared to be a pretty decent chance for widespread precipitation for this week.  Indeed the system did impact the high plains (and much of the central U.S.) with widespread rainfall.  Some got way more than expected, others fell short once again.  It's the way it is with weather.  Here is a map of rainfall the past 72 hours...

and a little bit of a close-up of the high plains...

I ended that last post with "But, then beyond mid-week, it looks dismal again.  What the atmosphere will be fighting is a very warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) or capping with warm air aloft.  I'm afraid going forward that it will have to be a case of good luck to get mesoscale processes lined up to produce opportunities for rainfall. "

Which brings us to the latest upper level map...

The departing storm that brought all the rain was located over southwest Missouri this morning but had loosened it's grip on the high plains.  Now attention is drawn to the jetstream over the Pacific.  The pattern will be active going into June for the northern plains initially but then down into the southern plains.  As I mentioned in that quote above, most of the high plains region will be fighting the warm air aloft (capping).  Surface and boundary layer moisture will be making a return but the main questions will be how far west the moisture can get and if the air aloft will be too warm to prevent thunderstorms.  Again, as mentioned, it will probably boil down to mesoscale processes (small scale features and interactions with overnight storms later in the week) that will spell doom or gloom in regards to precipitation.  Some of the models and official NWS forecasts are someone robust in the output.  Here is the latest map of possible precipitation amounts from this Thursday afternoon into the start of the next weekend....

It will be a day-to-day type of situation.  The first opportunity for the Kansas region of the high plains may be as early as Monday of this next week with several opportunities throughout the week.  I'm afraid to get too excited as this last system may have gotten some hopes up.   For the eastern part of the high plains, yeah it sure looks good (and many may actually have gotten too much rain so far).  But I just have a sneaking suspicion that the warm air aloft may win out on most days for the high plains.  Again, it will be these mesoscale processes that might call the shots.  Fingers crossed. 

I still intend to address the remainder of the summer in later posts...

It will be a struggle

Several months ago I gave the outlook through June with drier than expected for May, with just a glimmer of hope, and drier than average for June.  The glimmer of hope has come and gone several times.  Just about the time I think that we'll get lucky with precipitation, a monkey wrench will be thrown into the equation.  The last system did bring some widespread precipitation, but unfortunately most locations did not get that much.  Some got more than had fallen for months.  Here is a look at the rainfall that fell across the region....

Going back 14 days - it's pretty dismal, at least for May

The lack of widespread rainfall and decent amounts combined with very warm to hot days with a lot of wind has manifested into the serious drought.  Here is the latest Palmer Drought Severity Index map...

That brings us to another "glimmer of hope".  Looking at the upper air chart from this morning....

The upper low across Idaho was dropping southeast and was unseasonably strong combined with the upper trough extending into southern Canada.  That has set the stage for the late spring snowstorm across the Rockies.  For the high plains, there may be some rain and snow across the higher elevations  (mainly into northeast Colorado).  Otherwise, just colder air.

The hope for the most of us is that system out in the north Pacific (see the map above).  Wow that has a LONG way to go to get set up to produce much for the high plains, in the terms of precipitation.  Long range computer forecast models have been robust.  I'm so hesitant to expect much.  However, it is now getting into the latter days of May and Gulf of Mexico moisture has become more accessible for storm systems.  Here is the outlook through Wednesday from a combination of NWS forecasts and various computer models.  Fingers crossed....

But, then beyond mid-week, it looks dismal again.  What the atmosphere will be fighting is a very warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) or capping with warm air aloft.  I'm afraid going forward that it will have to be a case of good luck to get mesoscale processes lined up to produce opportunities for rainfall. 

Not that La Nina is producing this drought/dryness (it is definately contributing to it), but the news might even be worse going through all of summer.  It appears that we may be headed towards a "triple dip" La Nina (3 in a row) and the only two times I could find this happening was 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.  Both summers of that third year were very dry.  I'm not optimistic.

After this upcoming opportunity for rainfall, I'll update again with perhaps more detail for the Summer.

How disappointing! Mostly have nots!

 In the previous post I did on the third (please read it here), I ended with "There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance."

The system that was coming in with tons of moisture to work with had so much promise!  The forecast precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center was very optimistic and I was hopeful it would be close, yet I knew there would be some locations that got "ripped off".  However, I was not expecting so much of the area missing out.  The reason?  The atmosphere dumped copious amounts of rain across Oklahoma and into the eastern half of Kansas.  Look at the map of rainfall...depressing for sure if you live across the high plains...

Essentially the front ignited south of Kansas and that helped to reinforce the cold air across Kansas and disrupted the flow of moisture into the weather system aloft - which was actually in a perfect position to benefit the high plains.  Yes, there was a relatively narrow band of good rainfall across parts of eastern Colorado and NW KS, but for the most of the area of high plains it was nothing more than heavy drizzle for a couple of days.

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....

We are still in a very active pattern.  Now the problem, and I was NOT seeing this happen, the pattern has shifted a little north.  The result?  HOT and windy conditions will be developing.  I blew that one!  Will there be thunderstorms with the heat?  I would think there will be a possibility but I'm afraid only on a scattered basis (again next week the 9-13th) and there may be too much of a CAP (warm air aloft).  I can't imagine though with the active pattern that at least of a portion of the high plains will benefit (maybe towards the weekend).  

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center...

I'll try to update again later in the week.

The haves and have nots

Unfortunately because of job constraints I have not been able to update as often as I would like.  Let me review what has happened since the last posting on April 15th - and you can read that one here if you haven't already.

For months (actually since January 18) I had thrown out a date of  "April 20th give or take a day or two" as a potential big day across the high plains. That is a three month specific outlook!  I updated that on the 15th of April with a "between April 20-24".  Did anything happen?  You be the judge.

Severe weather reports on April 21

Severe weather reports on April 22 (day Sharron Springs got hit with a tornado)

In the previous posts I mentioned there a colder period the last days of April and into the first days of May with a possible frost or light freeze.  Here is a map of low temperatures across Kansas this morning the 3rd (and disregard the single digit for Spearville obviously).

Also in the previous posts I mentioned "slight bit of hope in May".  The past few systems have brought some good rains but for the "haves" and not for the "nots".   Such is systems in the spring.  At least now there is storms farther west.  Here is a look at the precipitation this past 14 days.

Obviously the hardest hit area by the drought has continued to miss a lot of the precipitation but yet some areas did get some good rain this past 2 weeks.   The good news is that, as been case all spring, the pattern remains active but now some gulf of Mexico moisture is returning.  Looking at the upper air image from this afternoon...

There is a pretty strong upper level system across the Great Basin.  Surface moisture was returning up through west Texas and should be enough to interact with this system to bring some good rain across a pretty good chunk of the high plains.   Unfortunately  much of west Texas may not benefit much.

There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance.