On Schedule?

On schedule...for more viral inaccurate social media posts...but also for other storm possibilities.  In the previous post I did on Jan 31 (read it by clicking here), I had a discussion about the social media graphics of cold and snow.  There are so many people out in social media land that will display computer forecast graphics - that are real output but have about a zero percent chance of verifying.  Per that last post, did super deadly cold ever occur?  Nope!  Did 2 feet of snow fall across Nebraska and Iowa?  Not even a flake!  These computer forecast models often have ridiculous output and it's up to the human Meteorologist to forecast what is going to happen, not just posting a graphic from these models (that change drastically every six hours they are run).  The majority of these people are not actual meteorologists, just someone that knows how to copy and paste into Facebook or Twitter - even though their "name" is something catchy like "Real Meteorologists", etc. 

For the past few days (actually almost a week now), there have been various model solutions for a "potential" event next week, or even nothing at all!  Some of these computer outputs have been extremely generous on precipitation amounts (rain and/or snow).  But yet other forecast cycle runs have shown little to nothing.  Based on my analysis of the weather pattern that developed during the fall, I had picked out mid-February (specifically February 17) as a potential period of "something" significant across at least parts of the high plains.  There has been a lot of talk about next week with varying amounts of certainty or uncertainty, some with specific details which is irresponsible.  Here's my take....

Since I was expecting an event next week based on my analysis, I would lean in that direction.  However, any specifics of timing, type of precipitation, amounts, etc., just can't be forecast this far out.  Looking at this mornings upper atmospheric map with the jetstream....

There was a weak system (upper air forcing) sweeping through the central U.S. with associated "storm" located over Iowa.  The lower part of the atmosphere was very dry so that the only area of measurable precipitation (snow) would fall across Colorado and into New Mexico (maybe slipping into far western KS - but it would be light.  The system that I have my eyes on is the X1 out in the Pacific.  It is forecast to ride up and over the upper ridge (denoted by the blue H and squiggly line) and then dive south.  This is where it becomes very tricky.  I have ZERO idea of how much amplification will take place as it dives south.  The eventual intensity, location of amplification, where it will turn east and then move east is highly unknown.  There are numerous possibilities.   But, based on the overall pattern that developed this fall, it should most definitely amplify into a strong system/storm.  There swill be a pretty good return of gulf moisture ahead of it and the chances of significant precipitation will increase for the central and southern U.S..  However, just how much impact will be experienced across the high plains is still very much uncertain.  My gut tells me that a good part of even southwestern Kansas will benefit with decent moisture and that could very well be in the form of snow.  

Looking at the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center, their forecast is such that I can't argue with their assessment....

Going beyond next weeks potential system, there appears to be just very small chances of a weaker storm system.  I hope we can get something else towards the last week of the month.  I'm seeing more and more evidence of long stretches of dryness going into spring.  Any break in the pattern that "could" bring moisture will be key going deeper into spring.  I'll address that later this month. 

BTW, the period of March 3-10 has my attention and then again around April 20th (give or take a day or two) appears to be a period we should be concerned about.  By that time, any potential storm system of significance could bring a wide variety of weather to the central U.S., including severe convective weather, a nasty dust storm, or even an April blizzard.  Just a date to put on your calendar.  

I'll probably provide a brief update next week.