Update - July 11, 2019

Changes have definitely taken place!  Has the gravy train of rainfall ended?  Yes, at least for now.  In the previous post on the 3rd (you can read it by clicking here), I posted the map generated by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.  Here is that map valid for July 10 through 16....



I was not necessarily disagreeing as I was expecting increasing chances for thunderstorms the last 3 weeks of July.  But, obviously, this outlook for the 10-16 period will NOT verify - at ALL (except for perhaps the Rockies)!  What has happened?

You might have been made aware of a developing tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  That system can be viewed on this latest satellite image....



As of this posting Thursday afternoon, there was still uncertainty as to the strength by the time it reaches land (will it be a hurricane?), but it doesn't matter. What it will do is produce copious amounts of rainfall across much of the lower Mississippi Valley which will have a potential for a catastrophic result!  The exact track heading north is questionable but there will certainly be a high risk of catastrophic flooding.  Lake Pontchartrain is quite full (fuller to the prior landfall of Katrina) and the Ol' Miss is about 14 feet higher than it was with Katrina.  It will certainly be newsworthy.

Regardless, the impacts on the high plains will be nil, as far as rainfall.  But that takes us back to the question "what happened to the previous thinking from the 3rd of July"?

The Southern Oscillation Index (measure of sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin) had crashed very recently - and in fact the 90 day average was as low as it's been since May of 2016! This occurrence can be tied to the weak El Nino (that appears to be strengthening).  In turn, energy propagation from the deep tropics in the Darwin-Tahiti area has festered the development of the tropical system in the northern Gulf.  The combination of the two have resulted in a strengthening upper level ridge across the southwest and central U.S., essentially shutting off much hope for rainfall across at least the plains and parts of the upper midwest - for an extended period of time!

But I guess with what has fallen since last June, we could use a break?  For the past week, here are the amounts of rainfall since the 4th (through this morning, the 11th)...



SIDE NOTE:  Remember that Cedar Bluff Reservoir prediction of reaching "full"?  There have been SO many systems this past six months that JUST BARELY missed the runoff basin.  Lately, the big hit that occurred over southern Nebraska as seen on the rainfall map, would in itself filled 'er up.  But perhaps it's not done just yet as there should be more opportunities later this month and perhaps into August.

Back to the satellite image...that stream of moisture heading north is the re-surging North American Monsoon should keep much of the Rockies in the wet pattern.  But, it doesn't look like much of any will drift into the eastern high plains anytime soon.  Here is the rainfall outlook through the end of the 18th....



For the remainder of the month - I'm expecting the upper ridge to break down a bit.  I would be highly perturbed if it doesn't as it would not fit the overall pattern that developed last fall.  Thus, I would expect a return of higher chances for thunderstorms during the last 7 days of the month (maybe a bit sooner).  Temperatures will still be moderated by the amount of vegetative growth.  Higher humidity will likely return.

Update - July 3, 2019

The "typical" summer weather pattern continued this past week.  Even though it has dried out for many locations and warmed up considerably (good for wheat harvest), temperatures have been moderated due to the general active vegetative growth and above normal soil moisture.   Dodge City has yet to reach 100 (98 was the hottest this past week).  Rainfall was less widespread, although those that got rain - well some got excessive rainfall!  Here is the map of rainfall amounts this past 7 days...


BTW, for June the overall amounts of rainfall were far less than May, but there were still areas that had excessive amounts.  Across the NWS Dodge City area, there was rain somewhere on almost every single day of June, it just wasn't as widespread.  Here is the map showing the percent of normal for the month:



Looking at this mornings satellite image...



The little red X's represent disturbances aloft.  Often in the summer time these disturbances are slow moving as they are removed from the jetstream winds (which is usually far to the north) and they are very difficult to track.  Each disturbance can cause thunderstorms near them on a daily basis, where ever they track.


In the previous post I did on the 25th (you can read that by clicking here), I was seeing hints that the last 3 weeks of July might see additional thunderstorms and possibly cooler weather.  The term cooler does not imply 70s and 80s, although there will probably be a few days in the 80s.  Back to the satellite image, the blue H across northern Mexico is the reflection of the typical North American Monsoon that has developing as it does each summer.  The stream of atmospheric moisture has not become robust just yet, but is poised to do so.   It typically enhances Rocky rainfall and to a lesser extent the high plains.

So, with the increasing monsoon flow and with periodic disturbances aloft, the opportunities for increasing amounts of convective activity (thunderstorms) across the high plains, the outlook for wetter and "cooler" as July progresses will ramp up.  The first "good" chance of that happening will be over this coming weekend (6th-7th).  Here is the early look of potential rainfall through early next Wednesday (from the Weather Prediction Center)...

And then the Climate Prediction Center issued the following outlook for the period July 10 through July 16, primarily for the 10th through the 12th....



I'm not sure how they came to this risk area or why (likely from computer model output).  I can't necessarily disagree as my thoughts have been for increasing chances for rainfall during the last 3 weeks of July.  IF the added rainfall occurs for July (and subsequent moderated temperatures), the likelihood of continued GDD's being below normal will continue.

I'll try and update later next week.