Is the gravy train of rainfall about to come to an end, again? Recently there has been enough flow aloft to carry thunderstorm clusters off the higher terrain into the western high plains. Many areas of the high plains have benefited with substantial rainfall but unfortunately some areas with TOO MUCH rainfall! Also, there were a few severe storms producing very large hail (over 3 inch diameter) but from accounts I found the larger stones were few and far between. The torrential rain may have been detrimental at some locations.
Over the past 2 weeks, here is an estimate of rainfall across the plains....
As mentioned at the start, some locations had too much rain! There have been a couple of systems that brought 4 to 6 inches on several occasions. But, there were also locations that didn't receive that much during this 14 day period, especially across northwest Kansas and far SW Kansas and parts of the panhandles.
The current system (Wednesday/Wednesday night) will bring more thunderstorms but not all areas will benefit. After this goes by, there will be a drying trend AND warming trend! Temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend will be back to normal.
Here was the latest satellite image....
The system (the red L) across Idaho will weaken as it moves into the northern plains. More importantly is the fetch of tropical moisture from the tropical eastern Pacific ocean that stretches into the inter-mountain west that will likely get cut off for a while, at least into the central plains. Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Wednesday the 29th....
There may still be scattered thunderstorms during the end of the current week and into next week, but the coverage will be limited even though temperatures will be heating up.
As we get into September, it is one of the most difficult months to forecast for as far as a long range forecast. The pattern that gets established during the fall (usually late September and early October) will continue in some similar fashion into the following spring and summer and dies out during the following September. The current pattern of circulation across the globe that got it's start last fall, is waning. I believe the pattern is starting to transition into the "new" circulation (part old, part new).
Currently what will throw a monkey wrench into the flow aloft is all the typhoon activity across the western Pacific that has been going on for well over a week and now the eastern Pacific tropical activity, i.e., Hurricane Lane and potentially additional tropical activity developing. I'll have to watch this and give an update on what to expect as we transition into September. Will it be hot and dry in September? Possibly but confidence is low. I'll try and update later next week and give more insight into September and beyond.
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