Update - 08/31/18

There is currently a LOT of tropical activity across the Pacific Ocean (entire basin) that shows no sign of letting up.  The Atlantic may have a period too of increased activity, at least for the first half of September.  Will any of this have an impact on the high plains?  It should, at least indirectly.

In the previous post I did on the 22nd (you can read that by clicking here) I was expecting the "gravy train" of widespread rainfall across the high plains to come to an end, at least temporarily and also to heat up.  After the abnormally cool period, temperatures did warm up significantly with several days of readings around 100 at spots.  Rainfall did occur but more scattered across the high plains.  It's interesting that the wettest area of western Kansas so far this year also got the majority of the latest heavy rainfall!   Here is the 7 day accumulation...



Some areas got pounded again with heavy rain but the areal coverage was small.  Much of the region got nothing at all or very little.  Here is the latest drought map that was generated earlier in the week (doesn't take into account late week rains across Iowa)...



Looking at this mornings satellite image....



There were two tropical systems moving towards Hawaii, again.  But just lake Hurricane Lane, they will encounter cooler water and should start to drift north or get shredded by winds aloft.  I don't see much impact to the U.S. mainland, at least at this point.  I will point out, however, that before Fall concludes there could be a threat to southern California.  It has happened before but it would be a rare occurrence.

More importantly is that red X (upper level disturbance) north of Reno Nevada.  It is headed southeast and will move across the plains later in the weekend.  That will combine with an increasing moist tropical fetch of moisture coming up from the Gulf of California.  The result will be several rounds of thunderstorms with excessive rainfall a possibility.  After that goes by there may continue to be a tropical fetch so additional chances will exist through that first full week of September.  For those with interests for the midwest/corn belt, the rainfall will likely be extreme producing widespread flooding!

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week.  Keep in mid that this is more of an average - some areas will get less, some more.  Also, at the time of this posting their latest outlook wasn't available.  I feel rains across western Kansas may be UNDER estimated in this outlook particular outlook. 



I'm still evaluating expected conditions for the remainder of September.  This upcoming wet period really wasn't showing itself a week ago.  IF the projected precipitation outlook verifies, that would have an impact going well into September as temperatures would be moderated from wet soils and also a continued "green" landscape.  I'll try and update next week.