Update - July 20, 2018

The summer pattern has a little twist in it!  The flow aloft across the northern parts of the high plains and into the midwest is stronger than what is typical.  That helped to produce the tornado outbreak across Iowa yesterday.  The extremely sad even that occurred on Table Rock in Missouri was also enhanced a bit by this stronger flow. 

Speaking of the tragedy at the resort in southwest Missouri...  As a professional Meteorologist now for 35 years - what happened yesterday evening, it just absolutely disgusts me and sickens me.  That should have NEVER have happened!  There was an extreme amount of discussion about those storms even as early as Thursday morning as they were moving through north central Kansas. A severe thunderstorm watch discussing high winds was issued well ahead of the tragedy.  The severe thunderstorm warning was issued more than 30 minutes before the event unfolded highlighting high winds as the storms moved southeast at more than 40 MPH!  Those that say it was a freak storm, or there was little warning, or it blew up out of now where.   Complete garbage!  Every thing was done right EXCEPT the reaction or lack of action of individuals.  No one should have been on the water! There should NOT be 17 dead from this disaster. Ugh.

Back to the high plains weather.  In the previous post I did on the 13th (ready that by clicking here), I ended with the discussion (that I started with the post before that on July 6th) about the cool down expected going into August. I've been watching the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that was headed into a phase space that should bring cooler weather for the last 10 days of July and going into August. 

First, there continues to be episodes of storms across parts of the high plains (but not everywhere).  The rainfall the past week is estimated in this map....



Early this afternoon the satellite image showed deep tropical flow continuing to move out of the deep tropics into the inter mountain west.  



As a fairly strong system (the red L up across southwest Canada) moves southeast, it should drag cooler air into the high plains by the end of the weekend and continuing into next week.  This should also increase the likelihood of precipitation.  Here is the potential during the next 7 days ending next Friday July 27....



So, I do believe the MJO phase position is responsible for not only the deep flow from the tropics, but also the rather strong system dropping out of Canada that will bring the "cooler", or at least below normal temperatures, next week.  Going into August there will still be very warm days (I don't think 100s) but at on average readings will likely be below normal, especially for areas of northern Kansas and Nebraska. 

I won't be around data for the next week so it will likely be July 27 or later before I can update again.