Summer Pattern - updated 07/13/18

In the post I did on the 6th (you can read that by clicking here), I discussed the temporary end to the generous rainfall that had occurred during the "reprieve" but also hinted that it could come back after 7 days or so.  At this point, the pattern aloft is very summer-like, which is not surprising since, well it's summer!  The pattern does look to shift again in that there will be at least a slight increase in precipitation chances.  More importantly might be a "cool down" for a few days, starting especially next week.  Here is the satellite image from this morning...



There are all kinds of disturbances aloft (the red X's) but the flow is very chaotic across the northern hemisphere, again typical for summer.  More importantly might be a brief return of northwest flow aloft across the high plains.  During this next 5 to 7 days there will be an increased chance for rainfall across the high plains. Not all days will have precip and not all locations will get that much, but some areas will see beneficial amounts.  Temperatures by the middle part of next week may be in the 80s during the day time, depending on the amount of cloud cover and that will be the best opportunity for showers and storms.  Regardless, no 100's or windy heat is expected during that period.  Here is the outlook for precipitation amounts from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week...



This is just an average.  Some will get more, some will get less.  Hey that looks good across much of the corn belt!

In the previous post I did on the 6th I mentioned the large amounts of rainfall in the Hill City area.  Here is a map (parts of Kansas) showing how much has fallen since April 14th (90 days).



Of note is the red areas where rainfall was over 20 inches during the period!  That is ridiculous!  But just as ridiculous is that not far away amounts were significantly different.  In only a 15 mile stretch amounts differed by well over a foot!  Here is a close-up....



The drought has subsided in the areas that have seen the beneficial rains but where areas have missed out the drought has expanded or gotten worse.  Here is that map.



Late into the summer....

In that previous post I said "and then I kinda think August might be a decent precipitation month but more on that later (I have just a small hunch)."  One of the indicators I've been watching for a few weeks is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is actually robust for July!  It looks like it is headed into phase space six, which would favor below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation (averaged over a 2-3 week period) across the northern and central parts of the county.  It should be reaching that phase by the last week to 10 days of this month.  I couldn't find many years in observation history that had a decent MJO during July that moved into phase 6.  Two years that it did (1996 and 1989) had much below normal temperatures and well above normal precipitation in late July and well into August, at least for Dodge City.  Could that happen again this year?  I see it as a possibility.  I'll try and update that prospect later next week.