Update 04/11/18

In the updated post I did on the 25th of March I discussed briefly about the COLD that I expected for at least the first 10 days of April.  Obviously it occurred, with record low temperatures observed at many locations this past weekend.  Way back in the fall I posted several times of the likelihood of a late (later than normal) spring freeze. More about that below.

This past week and a half of cold has really pushed back the green-up (and combined with the dryness).   Unfortunately that will extend the wildfire threat, especially given that more wind is expected with low relative humidity.  There may be a day or two through the 21st of lighter winds, but the majority of the days will have pretty windy conditions, whether that be a north of south wind.

One thing I've talked about for months is that opportunities for precipitation would be fewer than normal, but that as we get later into spring that moisture would become more available to work with.  During this past couple of weeks there have been a least a few systems producing some rain (and snow).  Here is a map of precipitation that occurred between March 28 and April 11...


So now what?  Looking at this mornings satellite image.....



The next weather maker for the plains was out across the Pacific as a small disturbance in the jetstream marked by the red X straight west of California.  It's not much at the current time but it will intensify as it moves into the Rockies and eventually into the plains early this weekend.  As usual, the eventual path it takes (and it's intensity as it moves out) will determine the amount and location of precipitation.  At this point, it appears it will move out too far north to bring much precipitation to the high plains, initially.  Severe weather and thunderstorms will most likely develop across the far eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, and on to the east and south. But there is some indication that as the eventual storm wraps up, rain and snow will develop on the back side, probably most likely Saturday.  There won't be a LOT of moisture and unfortunately it will be accompanied by 40 to 60 MPH winds.

Here is the precipitation outlook through mid-week from the Weather Prediction Center (through Wednesday morning the 18th)....


In addition, temperatures will be back well below freezing, especially by Sunday morning across the high plains.  Even with very warm temperatures today through Friday of this week (90s on Friday), the cold this weekend will knock 2 inch soil temperatures back into the low 50s by the first of next week.

Going on into the remainder of April...there will be additional weather systems (as early as the 20th) and at least one of those should bring "some" precipitation to the high plains, but not a lot.  Unfortunately there will be many more windy days keeping the fire threat elevated.  Plus, ups and downs with temperatures.  The pattern does support more cold air by the last few days of the month - and likely a frost or freeze again.

Going into May we will not be completely out of the woods for very cold air!  I would not be surprised to have near freezing or at least frost around mid-month.  More on that as we get closer to May.

I'll attempt to post again in about a week.