April 17, 2018

Slight changes may mean the high plains benefits!  In the post I did on the 11th of April (you can read it by clicking here), I mentioned additional weather systems for the remainder of the month, the first as early as the 20th.  That system is there and on track!  Early indications was for "some" precipitation for the high plains but not a lot.  Minor changes in the hemispheric forcing (perhaps from a somewhat active MJO and the decreasing affects from a very strong Stratospheric Warming Event that occurred over a moth ago) could actually benefit the high plains.

Looking at this mornings satellite image...



The red X across Nevada and Utah is another in a series of upper level systems.  Very similar to the systems this winter and spring, the storm system will pass too far north for the high plains to benefit.  All we will get, as usual, is strong winds after the passage of the associated cold front.  Fire danger will continue to be extreme! The storm will produce MORE snow across the midwest and into the Great Lakes!  The system will also drop more cold air into the high plains....BUT it will only be very brief as the next (and hopeful system approaches later in the week).

Back to the satellite image...the other red X just south of the Gulf of Alaska is projected to move southeast during the next few days.  Here is the change....this time it looks like the track will be a more southerly one - plus it should be slightly slower!  Although Gulf of Mexico moisture has been hammered from these frequent fronts lately, the moisture will be making a recovery this week and will take a trajectory up across the Rio Grande and eventually west Texas.  This is a change!

So as the storm system approaches late in the week, boundary layer moisture will be available that should result in widespread precipitation and even across much of Texas and Oklahoma!  There is still a lot of uncertainty on amounts and locations of the heavier rains.  I think at this point I would say everyone across the high plains gets at least a 1/2 an inch of rain.  A lot can happen before Friday/Saturday, but I won't be surprised to see a lot of observations of 1 to 1 1/2 inches with a few spots over 2 inches!  Again, details of where the heaviest amounts will fall is uncertain since the upper system is still way out in the Pacific and the track is unknown.

Here is the first guess from the Weather Prediction Center through the first of next week...



Don't take the amounts literally at this point or the bullseye of heaviest rains.  But, this should give a sense of how widespread the rains could be.  This is similar to the mid-March system only much farther west and south!

Also in the previous post I discussed the cold for the last week of April that is highly probable.  This also seems to be on track with an additional chance for moisture!  By May 1st, soil temperatures should continue to be colder than normal - or at least much colder than the previous few years.  The Corn Belt - how late will planting be this year?  Someone better start thinking about that!