Another quick update

If you missed the last post on the 9th, please read it (click here).  There really isn't much to add to that post.  As we get deeper into September, perhaps I will start to see the evidence of the "new" pattern that will begin to slowly show itself.

In the previous post on the 9th, I said "If fact, in my analysis that I've been using to pick out periods of opportunity, the next  date(s) will be centered on August 18, for just a few days.  If you miss out on that, then the final opportunity for August should be towards the end of the month.  In between - hot and dry.

The date of the 18th worked out for some of you but as is typical, many missed out - again.  The significance was the area that "had" been extremely dry across southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas got a pretty soaking!  Here is a map of rainfall for the 72 hour period ending yesterday the 18th (morning)....

The next period mentioned would be "towards the end of the month".  That appears to be a possibility too on track.  The cooler weather of the past few days was expected, although I didn't expect it to be quite as cool.  That cooler air was aided by the upper level system over Minnesota that was sliding southeast.  See the map....

Other than what I was expecting for the end of the month and also the period in September mentioned in the previous posting ( a possibility of a decent front centered around September 6 and maybe that could bring some rain that would be key for fall planting later in the month.), there really isn't anything else I can pick out as the weather pattern starts its transition.  Hopefully more on that when I get a chance to post again. I know fall prep and planting is coming up later in September.  Obviously getting rain this next 2 to 3 weeks will be very critical.  

Finally, here is the expected rainfall through the end of next week (provided by the Weather Prediction Center), which by the way is extremely significant for Texas!...

If this amount of rain verifies, will that impact weather going into the fall?  I think so.  More on that later.

Quick update - The weather pattern will be slowly fading

In the previous post I did on the 29th (click here to read it), the final period of opportunity first identified in the June 14th post was August 3-7 Below normal temps and above normal rainfall.  The period prior was for July 25-28 and I was off a few days on that, so naturally the August 3-7 would be off a few days too.  Although there was cooling from the 105 degree weather, the average temperature was closer to normal and slightly below starting on the 8th but it will be brief.  Rainfall was there (so above normal for some, but not all) that started on the 5th.  Here is the rainfall for late August 5th through yesterday the 8th.

There was definately a shift farther west and north this time around.  The upper level dome of high heights has shifted just far enough west that most of Kansas and Oklahoma will lose almost all opportunity for rainfall for at least a week, if not more.   If fact, in my analysis that I've been using to pick out periods of opportunity, the next  date(s) will be centered on August 18, for just a few days.  If you miss out on that, then the final opportunity for August should be towards the end of the month.  In between - hot and dry. 

Here is the rainfall outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Tuesday...

The weather pattern that was established last fall will be fading away this next month as we go into September.  Weather events by September will still be influenced by the same pattern. But as the westerlies (upper level winds) begin to strengthen again across the Northern Hemisphere, we'll start to see a shift as October approaches (a combination of old and new influences).  In my analysis, I do see a possibility of a decent front centered around September 6 and maybe that could bring some rain that would be key for fall planting later in the month.