Friday, May 3, 2019

Update - May 3, 2019

In recent posts during the past 1 1/2 months, I was having increasing concerns about the dryness that had developed across parts of western and central Kansas. But I still had hope - and you can read that latest post by clicking here.

This past 7 days there were several weather systems (and the active weather continues unabated). At Dodge City we had gone from the driest April on record to 16th driest as we did get rain on the 30th.  So, at least for our local area we finally got some rain.  During the past 7 days, here is what fell across the region....



Before this rain, here was the drought monitor, which showed that dry area that had developed....



Since there will be more opportunities for rainfall, I think this area of dryness (that yellow area in Kansas) should be wiped out, soon.

Looking at this afternoons satellite image....



The Pacific Basin has become active with storms and the overall weather pattern continues to favor systems across the central U.S..  What is different now (compared to a month ago), is that Gulf Of Mexico moisture will become more readily available to promote more widespread precipitation.  Unfortunately, it will also promote severe weather risks. Overall, I expect May to be a really active month and eventually almost everyone across the high plains will have above normal rainfall. But, there will probably be a lot of hail, wind and even tornadoes too.   That said, I would expect some areas to have flooding issues during the month.

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday...


Besides precipitation, the below normal temperatures (that had been expected and was discussed several posts ago) will, on average, stay on the cool side.  There will be a few milder days, but overall don't expect any "hot" weather for quite a while.  Soil temperatures should be running below normal for sometime.  I have quite a few presentations next week but hopefully I can get a chance to post here by Thursday.