Update 11/12/18

The post I did a week ago on the 5th, I discussed a developing system that was to bring some snow to the central part of the country.  There had been many shares of a viral post about 6 to 12 inches of snow expected.  As I have mentioned numerous times in this blog, often someone will post a map of computer generated snow or rain amounts (that usually changes dramatically every six hours).  If it's "exciting", the post will usually go viral as people just blindly post or share these maps without any thought to the validity.  I guess that goes for just about everything.  Shoot even this morning there is a viral post about a huge whitetail deer that was reportedly hit by a vehicle south of Dodge City over the weekend.  It was a picture of a deer that has been circulating the internet for THREE years!

Back to that first system that occurred mid-week.  As I mentioned in that post (you can read it by clicking here), I was expecting a very narrow band of heavier precipitation (snowfall) that could be from a lot to basically nothing!  There ended up being several narrow bands.  The heaviest near St. Francis in far northwest Kansas and around 5-6 inches in the flint hills of eastern Kansas.  Dodge City for instance only got 1/2 inch and areas west and southwest got nothing at all!

The weather system that occurred yesterday (Sunday) and overnight was much stronger and more capable of producing heavier snowfall than what it originally appeared.  At this time last week when I did that post, there was just a "hint" of something that looked like it would impact southeast Colorado and into eastern New Mexico and into parts of the panhandles for late in the weekend.   Since it ended up stronger and more functional, that just might be a sign of things to come for this winter and following spring. 

Looking at this mornings satellite, the system that brought the snow is the red X across eastern New Mexico....



On the satellite image, one very important feature is the blue squiggly line that stretches up into Alaska.  That represents a sharp ridge aloft.  It's in a perfect location to allow systems to amplify as they drop into the Rockies which can also bring major shots of cold air into the U.S..  This ridge won't be in that location ALL the time, but I have a hunch that it will be there at least in the background of the flow aloft, meaning there will be repeats throughout the winter. When this occurs again during the dead of the winter, I have pretty high confidence of below zero temperatures across the high plains several times this cold season.

Something else on the satellite image...there are three areas that winds aloft are moving from the deep tropics to higher latitudes (the green arrows from the bottom of the image to the top).  This will continue to be sources of forcing going into the spring.  More on that later....

For this week, temperatures will be moderated by the snow cover with highs generally below normal until mid-week.  Lows tonight should drop well into the single digits.  There is another hint of a minor system for the weekend.  Will it also be stronger than expected and produce more snow?  I'm not too confident of that, but additional cold air looks like a strong possibility.

Following that system this coming weekend, I'm not seeing much at the moment although I would not be surprised to see something around Thanksgiving or shortly after.  Regardless, much warmer weather does seem to be in the offing beginning next week. 

The overall pattern is still in a flux and not set yet as it continues to develop and get established.  At some point during the next 2 to 3 weeks there should be a southwest U.S. or southern Rockies storm.  I'll attempt to update again in about a week.