Update 09/28/18

In the previous post I did on the 21st (you can read it by clicking here) I discussed it being dry from that point into early October but with perhaps a little bit of precipitation for the first part of this week.  It did rain but most areas got sprinkles and few about 0.05".  I also mentioned several strong frontal passages expected (and they have occurred) and the possibility of the first hard freeze for much of the northern plains and perhaps into the midwest for the period of Sept 28 (today) into the 2nd.  The front that swept into Kansas and Oklahoma this morning was the leading edge of pretty chilly air!  There was widespread low temperatures well into the 20s this morning across the northern plains.  Widespread frost and a light freeze will occur this Friday night/ Saturday morning that will extend into Iowa and Illinois (and a hard freeze into Minnesota).  For Kansas there should be enough cloud cover to prevent any frost - for this time.


The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is currently forming and is getting established. Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.  I'm already seeing some significant changes across the eastern Pacific.  It will be interesting as this settles into the pattern here in a couple of weeks.

For this next seven days attention is drawn to a major hurricane across the eastern Pacific.  Looking at the satellite image from this afternoon....

 

Hurricane Rosa was very powerful and was moving straight north (thanks to those changes across the Pacific that I mentioned above).  The hurricane will weaken as it moves north (cooler waters) but the impacts will be felt across a large area of the southwest U.S. in the form of torrential rainfall.  The remnants will likely  move as far east as western Colorado.  There is a very small chance that it could move farther east which would impact the high plains (but not likely).  Regardless, several of those systems across the Pacific will eventually impact the central U.S. during the next 7 days or so.  Details are HIGHLY uncertain so the map of precipitation provided by the Weather Prediction Center going into the end of next week will likely change.  Here is that map with the current thinking....

 
I will do my best to give an update later next week.  I'm starting to see signs pointing to a major cold push (i.e. a hard freeze into at least Kansas) by mid-October.  Again, hopefully I can find a little free time to update later next week.


 

Update - 09/21/18

In the post I did on Monday the 17th (to read it click here) I discussed the tropical system that was expected to develop across the Baja area of California (more specifically the Gulf of Baja).  In that post was the map of potential rainfall during provided by the Weather Prediction Center.   Quote "Don't take values or maximum amounts literally.  This is just a first approximation.  The Baja system has not fully developed and the front has not made a move yet.  But, it appears very likely that widespread precipitation across the central plains will occur.  The question is exactly where and how much."
 

This this another example of the intricacies of weather and how predicting exact values even a few days out are nearly impossible.  Widespread precipitation did occur across the plains, BUT some areas got very little.  Plus, it ends up as just a one day event for many.  Here is a look at the rainfall during the 24 hour period ending this Friday morning (09/21) at 7 AM.



The majority of the very heavy rain has shifted quite a bit farther south than what originally appeared possible.  There are several reasons.  First the cold front was a bit stronger and thus ended up moving farther south.  Second, the tropical system did eventually develope as expected.  But the track of the system ended up a bit farther south too!  The result is that the heavy and widespread rains are expected to be centered over Oklahoma instead of north central Kansas as depicted in the early Monday post.    Details of exact tracks of systems (fronts, upper level disturbances, etc. will almost always be off to a degree - that is if they even develop).

Here is the afternoons satellite showing the position of the remnants of the Baja system and the brightness  over much of Oklahoma where the heaviest rains were occurring...

 

As of 420 PM Friday, there had already been nearly a foot of rain southeast of Norman, OK and it wasn't even close to being done!  Many areas of flooding were occurring.  THIS could have been farther west and north where many were drilling winter wheat or harvesting corn!  

 

Looking ahead another very small chance for precipitation is possible early next week (Tue/Wed) but odds are rather small.  

Here is the potential rainfall trough next week provided by the Weather Prediction Center...

 

In general, it should be dry into early October.  There are hints of several strong frontal passages late next week and into the following week (28th-02nd) which may bring the first hard freeze to much of the northern plains and perhaps midwest.  I won't be surprised if there is at least frost into northern Kansas on a few of those mornings.

The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is beginning to form and getting established during this next few weeks.  Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.   I'll also try and get another post done sometime next week to update on the possible mid-week precip.

Update 09/17/18

Overdue posting of the High Plains Weather!  I got really busy this past few weeks and since this blog is done on my personal "free" time, I just got overwhelmed and unable to post anything.   The previous post on the 31st of August was during the middle of an unseasonably wet and cool period.  That ended, essentially, about a week ago on the 10th.  Many areas of plains received widespread precipitation but unfortunately many areas had way TOO much rain with many locations flooded.

The map of precipitation is not available and I don't have the resources at the moment to generate a map.

This past week and weekend got very warm and windy which is rather typical for the first half of September.    Many have asked if this was related to Hurricane Florence on the east coast and the short answer is NO!  Now that the Atlantic Basin is getting very quiet (tropical system wise), the forcing is transitioning to the Pacific side.  Most importantly for the plains is the gathering energy across the eastern Pacific and western Mexico.  It appears rather likely that a tropical system will develop near the Baja region.  At the same time there will be a series of upper level systems racing across the northern plains which will contribute to a cold front moving into the central plains by Wednesday night or Thursday.  On this afternoons satellite, those upper systems are denoted by the red X's across the Pacific NW.  The potential Baja system is the X and additional thunderstorms (white blobs to the right of the green jet stream) near the right hand corner of the image...

The impacts of the front moving into the plains and the approach of the tropical Baja system should result in widespread thunderstorms by the end of the week.  Those that are even close to drilling wheat (if it's dried out enough) may want to rethink that planting as some locations could get excessive rainfall and runoff/erosion.  Those that might be laying feed down - you might also want to reconsider until after the weekend.  Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center....

Don't take values or maximum amounts literally.  This is just a first approximation.  The Baja system has not fully developed and the front has not made a move yet.  But, it appears very likely that widespread precipitation across the central plains will occur.  The question is exactly where and how much.

I'll try and update again by the end of the week.