Update - 6/15/18 Finally a Reprieve

The post I did on June 1st (you can read it by clicking here), I painted a picture that had UGLY but also good signs!  The good sign?  In the that post I discussed the Madden Julian Oscillation moving into a phase space by the middle of June that would favor "wetter" regime ("Better chances for precipitation may occur after mid month"). Well, we're in mid-June now.  Right on schedule there are promising signs for at least a short reprieve from the oppressive heat, wind and general dryness.  The bad sign?  It's still there but it's not quite as strong as earlier thinking.  More on that in later posts.

During the past 14 days there were areas of beneficial rains (but also more episodes of large and destructive hail).  Unfortunately there were locations that didn't receive any rain at all!  But that wasn't surprising.  Here is an estimation of what fell the past 2 weeks.....



Based on those areas that got rain and those that didn't, here is the latest drought monitor map.

 

What is somewhat encouraging is the rains that fell across west Texas.  That "could" be a player for this next week to 10 days.  More in a bit..

Looking at the western satellite....

Remnants of what had been a strong hurricane (Hurricane Bud), was approaching southern California late this Friday afternoon.  That won't impact the high plains. But, moisture streaming north from the tropics on the east  side will have an impact.  Plus, we have this....

That X approaching the Yucatan will slowly migrate northwest during the next 5 to 7 days.  Also, not on this map, is another tropical system on the Pacific side west-southwest of the Yucatan system.  It will also move northwest and then north.  With the MJO in the phase space it is, that contribution will be DEEP flow into the plains.  Flow from the deep tropics!  This is good news in that will increase the opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms next week!   Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center that shows rainfall potential through the end of next week.

Not all locations will get what is depicted. This shows an average or potential.  Some areas will get less, while others get more and potentially a lot more!  The general pattern of opportunity should last into next weekend (23rd/24th). With the added moisture and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler (but more humid).  Beyond that, the potential rains across eastern New Mexico and western Texas (combined with what fell this past 14 days), MAY be enough to temper or modify the air enough to prevent excessive heat for the balance of June. That's a maybe and I'll try and update that later next week.

So what this post should tell you...take advantage of this near perfect harvest weather for the winter wheat .  Those harvest conditions will deteriorate next week.  Run 'em late as possible!