Update - 6/15/18 Finally a Reprieve

The post I did on June 1st (you can read it by clicking here), I painted a picture that had UGLY but also good signs!  The good sign?  In the that post I discussed the Madden Julian Oscillation moving into a phase space by the middle of June that would favor "wetter" regime ("Better chances for precipitation may occur after mid month"). Well, we're in mid-June now.  Right on schedule there are promising signs for at least a short reprieve from the oppressive heat, wind and general dryness.  The bad sign?  It's still there but it's not quite as strong as earlier thinking.  More on that in later posts.

During the past 14 days there were areas of beneficial rains (but also more episodes of large and destructive hail).  Unfortunately there were locations that didn't receive any rain at all!  But that wasn't surprising.  Here is an estimation of what fell the past 2 weeks.....



Based on those areas that got rain and those that didn't, here is the latest drought monitor map.

 

What is somewhat encouraging is the rains that fell across west Texas.  That "could" be a player for this next week to 10 days.  More in a bit..

Looking at the western satellite....

Remnants of what had been a strong hurricane (Hurricane Bud), was approaching southern California late this Friday afternoon.  That won't impact the high plains. But, moisture streaming north from the tropics on the east  side will have an impact.  Plus, we have this....

That X approaching the Yucatan will slowly migrate northwest during the next 5 to 7 days.  Also, not on this map, is another tropical system on the Pacific side west-southwest of the Yucatan system.  It will also move northwest and then north.  With the MJO in the phase space it is, that contribution will be DEEP flow into the plains.  Flow from the deep tropics!  This is good news in that will increase the opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms next week!   Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center that shows rainfall potential through the end of next week.

Not all locations will get what is depicted. This shows an average or potential.  Some areas will get less, while others get more and potentially a lot more!  The general pattern of opportunity should last into next weekend (23rd/24th). With the added moisture and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler (but more humid).  Beyond that, the potential rains across eastern New Mexico and western Texas (combined with what fell this past 14 days), MAY be enough to temper or modify the air enough to prevent excessive heat for the balance of June. That's a maybe and I'll try and update that later next week.

So what this post should tell you...take advantage of this near perfect harvest weather for the winter wheat .  Those harvest conditions will deteriorate next week.  Run 'em late as possible!

Update June 1, 2018 - Good and ugly signs

This past week was rather eventual across much of the high plains.  There continued to be several weather systems that brought some areas of good rains (but also large hail and high wind) but then there where still areas that missed out on the "good stuff".  Here is a look at the rainfall during the past 7 days....



The area up in northwest Kansas simply got way too much.  It is interesting how that heavy rain event unfolded.  There was a stationary boundary at the surface that allowed thunderstorms to keep forming and moving across the same area.  The result was rainfall exceeding 10 inches at some locations.  This is typically a type of event that occurs in June and not May.  Speaking of May...

May 2018 will go down in the record books at some locations as the warmest (hottest) May on record.  For Dodge City the average temperature for May was over a degree higher than the previous record!  Incredible! What is even  more incredible is that no daily records were set and there were no 100 degree days.  Unreal!



At least there was rainfall at many locations.  Unfortunately it's not enough to carry us through the growing season.  Here is the latest U.S. Drought map....



Looking at the satellite image from this Friday afternoon...the flow aloft was NOT typical for June 1. 



It's resembling more of a summer pattern.  Will this continue?  Unfortunately for a while, yes although that little red X off of Baja California may provide a day or two of scattered thunderstorms by the first of next week. Otherwise this pattern means more heat and probably decreasing opportunities for widespread rain.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction  Center through the end of next week....



The Maden Julian Oscillation (MJO) does NOT favor widespread precipitation going into mid-June.  It also favors continued warmth.  Here is the latest phase space diagram...



Going into phase space 4 and 5 during June is usually indicative for drier and warmer weather.  But there are sometimes caveats so I guess we need to hope for an anomaly.   Better chances for precipitation may occur after mid month.

Back on May 18th in the post I did, I had mentioned that there were glimmers of hope for better precipitation chances/occurrences for June.  But I also had nagging thoughts of a repeat of 2011 for the summer months.   For June, July, and August of 2011 the following is what occurred...

For temperatures....



For precipitation....(and look at the crazy amounts above normal across northern Kansas)....




Unfortunately I still have those nagging thoughts.  If I had to be forced to make a decision today - I would trend weather for this summer towards what occurred in 2011, just not quite as extreme.  In other words I would go with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the area but with a better chance of being near or above normal on precipitation north of Interstate 70 - similar to 2011.

We'll see how this next 7 days goes and maybe I'll get rid of those nagging thoughts.  Update late next week....