If you haven't read the blog in a while, check back on the last few posts I've done about what to expect this fall, winter and into next growing season.
This is just a quick update. I'm growing increasingly concerned about the outlook for below average precipitation this winter. There could still be 3 or 4 decent storms and those alone could actually bring near seasonal precipitation. If we don't get those decent storms (always a possibility), then below normal will be a given. But remember, winter precipitation on average is low anyway - it's our DRY season!
If you're an irrigator I would highly encourage you to take advantage of this "mild" weather to dump some water on the fields if you need it, BEFORE the deep freeze arrives!
In the previous post I did on the 22nd (you can read it by clicking here) I had mentioned the possibility of the first good opportunity of a storm between December 3 and 10. Some of the computer models have occasionally hinted at that also. But, I'm really starting to lean away from that possibility. I'm NOT liking what I'm seeing. I also mentioned brutal cold beyond that period. That still looks likely. The coldest air of the season will impact the midwest at that point, but the high plains will be on the edge of the colder air.
So, again, if you need to put water on the fields, don't hesitate because of the potential brutal cold coming in, especially after the 10th.
I'll shoot for another update sometime around the 5th.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Update - November 22, 2017
Since the last posting on the 3rd of November (read it by clicking here) the weather across the high plains has seen quite a few frontal passages with occasional colder weather (most notable during the overnight) but very little to no precipitation. At Dodge City (airport) there has only been 0.01" of moisture since October 6th. Some locations there hasn't been any at all! Obviously it's getting really dry, especially in the top several inches of the soil. Unfortunately, the outlook through the rest of November is not good as far as moisture.
In the previous post my early outlook for the high plains was for the following:
For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average. Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.
I'm not changing my mind at this point. At the present time, there continues to be conflicting signals! First the Arctic Oscillation has dove deep into the negative category!
The North Atlantic Oscillation has also gone negative.
These two indices should be very favorable for a massive invasion of Arctic cold into the states, including Kansas. As of this Wednesday morning, that cold air was in place to the north.
But there is something else going on and I'm not quite sure what is driving this current weather pattern! I believe though that the pattern is still setting up and perhaps it will be influenced with a greater contribution from the tropical Pacific. I'm not sold on that yet, but it's a possibility. With that being said, looking at the equatorial Pacific, the ENSO has moved more towards a La Nina (at least some of the indices point in that direction). IF, and that's a BIG if, the equatorial forcing in the Nino 3,4 dominates this winter, the outcome for the plains could go in the direction that we've already seen this fall. That would be frequent cold frontal passages, which would mitigate precipitation chances, but with wild swings in temperatures. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) should still be a contributor on occasion so that leaves the door open for a 2 or 3 "wetter" periods or at least opportunities for wet storms out of the southern Rockies as we go into late winter. We better hope so or it's going to be an ugly, dry and dusty spring!
So, for now, I'll keep with my early outlook. Perhaps the first good opportunity for a decent storm will be between December 3-10 with brutal cold following for a few days. Don't count on it yet as there are absolutely no indications - it's just kind of a gut feeling (and that is before it's stuffed with turkey).
I'll try and update again around the first of December.
In the previous post my early outlook for the high plains was for the following:
For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average. Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.
I'm not changing my mind at this point. At the present time, there continues to be conflicting signals! First the Arctic Oscillation has dove deep into the negative category!
The North Atlantic Oscillation has also gone negative.
These two indices should be very favorable for a massive invasion of Arctic cold into the states, including Kansas. As of this Wednesday morning, that cold air was in place to the north.
So, for now, I'll keep with my early outlook. Perhaps the first good opportunity for a decent storm will be between December 3-10 with brutal cold following for a few days. Don't count on it yet as there are absolutely no indications - it's just kind of a gut feeling (and that is before it's stuffed with turkey).
I'll try and update again around the first of December.
Friday, November 3, 2017
Update - 11/3/17 - Conflicting Signals
There really hasn't been much to blog about since my last post I did on the 17th (read it by clicking here). Precipitation has been pretty dismal since then, but at least it allowed for harvesting of fall crops and planting of the hard winter wheat. Unfortunately, many areas need some precip to get a good stand of wheat before we go into the dark days of winter.
Looking at the current satellite image, there are several "little" unorganized systems that will impact parts of the central plains by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Unfortunately they may not get into a configuration to bring much precipitation (if any) to the high plains. For areas of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and on east, there shouldn't be a problem.
Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center (through the end of next week):
So back to the previous post. At the end I gave a really early outlook for the fall, winter and into next summer. As I've stated numerous times, the pattern in the fall and winter is completely unrelated to the pattern from the previous seasons. The forcing for the pattern might be the same, but the pattern in general is different. Here is what I wrote back on the 17th in that previous post:
For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average. Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.
I'm not going to waver from that very early initial "guess" because I need this new pattern to fully show itself, which it has not done so yet. But, I'm starting to see some of the clues. So far temperatures have averaged slightly above normal, although there have been quite a few days of below normal. That is the first clue. So far, more frequent cold fronts.
Second, it's been really dry so far with limited storm systems. That "might" be the second clue. However, it is too early to jump on that as the pattern is still developing.
As I stated in the Oct 17 post, the Madden Julian Oscillation has been very robust and so far has amplified the pattern downstream, as expected. This might be one of those players this year. I've also noticed a sub-tropical jet coming out of the eastern Pacific. One of the biggest keys so far is the massive upper level ridge that has been centered, in general, across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S. and extending way north where it has shown some blocking characteristics. There has also been some hint of blocking over Greenland (a big player for cold into the states). Those features would point to occasional cold outbreaks into the central U.S. and the potential for wave breaking upper systems into the Four Corners region. IF that occurs, I could see the possibility of several high-impacting major winter storms into the high plains. BUT I'm not ready to pull the trigger on that outlook yet.
The conflicting signals? There are some indications of a dry fall and winter and in general near to above normal temperatures for the high plains. But then there are those signals that point to near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. I've got to have another 3 to 4 weeks to see how this pattern will start to repeat and see what persistent features dominate the pattern. Once I can identify that, I'll have more confidence in going forward through winter and into the next growing season.
The experts at the Climate Prediction Center have posted the maps below:
This shows the probabilities leaning towards warmer than average temperatures going into January. There is not much signal for precipitation (not leaning in the direction of wet or dry). But this appears to be strictly a La Nina composite forecast, and La Nina has NOT formed yet (and may not).
I won't be able to post again until the week of Thanksgiving. Hopefully by then a few more of the parts of the puzzle will reveal themselves.
Looking at the current satellite image, there are several "little" unorganized systems that will impact parts of the central plains by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Unfortunately they may not get into a configuration to bring much precipitation (if any) to the high plains. For areas of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and on east, there shouldn't be a problem.
Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center (through the end of next week):
For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average. Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average. Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.
I'm not going to waver from that very early initial "guess" because I need this new pattern to fully show itself, which it has not done so yet. But, I'm starting to see some of the clues. So far temperatures have averaged slightly above normal, although there have been quite a few days of below normal. That is the first clue. So far, more frequent cold fronts.
Second, it's been really dry so far with limited storm systems. That "might" be the second clue. However, it is too early to jump on that as the pattern is still developing.
As I stated in the Oct 17 post, the Madden Julian Oscillation has been very robust and so far has amplified the pattern downstream, as expected. This might be one of those players this year. I've also noticed a sub-tropical jet coming out of the eastern Pacific. One of the biggest keys so far is the massive upper level ridge that has been centered, in general, across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S. and extending way north where it has shown some blocking characteristics. There has also been some hint of blocking over Greenland (a big player for cold into the states). Those features would point to occasional cold outbreaks into the central U.S. and the potential for wave breaking upper systems into the Four Corners region. IF that occurs, I could see the possibility of several high-impacting major winter storms into the high plains. BUT I'm not ready to pull the trigger on that outlook yet.
The conflicting signals? There are some indications of a dry fall and winter and in general near to above normal temperatures for the high plains. But then there are those signals that point to near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. I've got to have another 3 to 4 weeks to see how this pattern will start to repeat and see what persistent features dominate the pattern. Once I can identify that, I'll have more confidence in going forward through winter and into the next growing season.
The experts at the Climate Prediction Center have posted the maps below:
This shows the probabilities leaning towards warmer than average temperatures going into January. There is not much signal for precipitation (not leaning in the direction of wet or dry). But this appears to be strictly a La Nina composite forecast, and La Nina has NOT formed yet (and may not).
I won't be able to post again until the week of Thanksgiving. Hopefully by then a few more of the parts of the puzzle will reveal themselves.
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